CLEBrowns
4-7
13
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
76°F
10 mph
10
MIADolphins
6-5
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
76°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
7
3
13
Dolphins
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
252
281
Total Plays
58
65
Yards / Play
4.3
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.23
Passing Yards
200
167
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
16/32(50%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.33
Rushing Yards
52
114
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
2.4
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
17
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
14%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-12.41
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
-7
Sack EPA
-2.89
-1.14
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
45
37
Penalty EPA
-4.50
-2.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model76.5%
Spread Pick
Dolphins-5.5
Expected Value
+22.9%
Cover Probability
64.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+277
Home nfelo
1,558
Away nfelo
1,380
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+36.6
Home QB Adjustment
+13.0
Away QB Adjustment
-23.6
Market Regression
+14.7
Final Difference
204.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
J. Delhomme
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-23.6
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
13
Yards / Game
30
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
7
Rushing Yards / Game
21
7
EPA
EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
27
24
EPA / Rush
22
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
11
Interceptions / Game
19
28
Fumbles / Game
13
17
Turnover EPA / Game
11
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
10
4th Down Efficiency
1
5
RZ Efficiency
27
2
Dolphins Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
12
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
14
11
Rushing Yards / Game
22
26
EPA
EPA / Play
25
23
EPA / Pass
20
25
EPA / Rush
26
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
16
Interceptions / Game
24
8
Fumbles / Game
6
17
Turnover EPA / Game
15
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
28
4th Down Efficiency
31
31
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U