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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ eagles week 1, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
-
10
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
85°F
14 mph
29
PHIEagles
-
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
85°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
7
3
0
10
Eagles
7
6
7
7
27

Spread

PHI logo
-4

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
288
403
Total Plays
50
73
Yards / Play
5.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.35
--
Passing Yards
168
270
Comp/Att
12/26(46%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.14
Rushing Yards
120
133
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
5.7
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.35
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
20%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.35
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-22
-8
Sack EPA
-4.09
-4.37
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
15
46
Penalty EPA
-3.04
-6.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+143
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,399
Home Field
+59.0
Base HFA
+59.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.1
Home QB Adjustment
-9.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.8
Market Regression
-58.1
Final Difference
112.9
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Value
Ptile
11/25
-8.6
5
12/01
3.8
76
12/08
-7.5
10
09/07
1.0
57
09/14
-4.6
22
11/02
-3.5
28
11/16
-6.0
15
11/23
-7.4
9
12/20
-3.1
29
12/28
1.0
56
C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Eagles Defense
Browns logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
31
11
Yards / Game
30
12
Passing Yards / Game
16
3
Rushing Yards / Game
18
15

EPA

EPA / Play
27
10
EPA / Pass
27
5
EPA / Rush
23
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
19
Interceptions / Game
16
8
Fumbles / Game
27
17
Turnover EPA / Game
16
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
19
4th Down Efficiency
5
11
RZ Efficiency
15
3
Eagles Offense vs Browns Defense
Eagles logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
16
30
Yards / Game
20
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
9
Rushing Yards / Game
9
30

EPA

EPA / Play
16
32
EPA / Pass
20
32
EPA / Rush
13
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
1
Interceptions / Game
16
22
Fumbles / Game
7
32
Turnover EPA / Game
23
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
30
4th Down Efficiency
18
29
RZ Efficiency
25
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-18
L
L
U
11/01
-14
L
L
O
11/05
-21
L
L
U
11/15
-21
L
L
U
11/30
-6
L
L
O
12/06
-34
L
L
U
12/13
14
W
W
U
12/20
-17
L
L
U
12/27
-4
L
W
U
01/03
-16
L
L
U
PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-11
L
L
U
11/08
6
W
W
O
11/15
-1
L
L
U
11/22
-28
L
L
O
11/26
-31
L
L
O
12/06
7
W
W
O
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/20
-23
L
L
O
12/26
-14
L
L
O
01/03
5
W
W
O