CLEBrowns
6-4
26
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
024
ATLFalcons
4-6
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
6
10
3
26
Falcons
7
7
0
10
24
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
475
315
Total Plays
71
69
Yards / Play
6.7
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.03
Passing Yards
313
252
Comp/Att
23/41(56%)
27/43(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.01
Rushing Yards
162
63
Rush Attempts
29
23
Yards / Rush
5.6
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
21
Passing 1st downs
16
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
40%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
17%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-13.65
-8.35
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-21
Sack EPA
-1.56
-9.38
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
30
40
Penalty EPA
-3.77
-7.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+91
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.1
Home QB Adjustment
+0.1
Away QB Adjustment
-2.0
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
27
Yards / Game
23
32
Passing Yards / Game
22
8
Rushing Yards / Game
16
21
EPA
EPA / Play
27
28
EPA / Pass
22
29
EPA / Rush
23
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
20
Interceptions / Game
19
13
Fumbles / Game
4
16
Turnover EPA / Game
25
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
19
RZ Efficiency
23
21
Falcons Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
9
Yards / Game
7
22
Passing Yards / Game
2
17
Rushing Yards / Game
24
32
EPA
EPA / Play
11
8
EPA / Pass
11
3
EPA / Rush
22
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
17
2
Fumbles / Game
15
16
Turnover EPA / Game
14
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
6
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U