nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ falcons week 12, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CLE logo
CLEBrowns
6-4
26
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
24
ATLFalcons
4-6
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
6
10
3
26
Falcons
7
7
0
10
24

Spread

CLE logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
475
315
Total Plays
71
69
Yards / Play
6.7
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.03
Passing Yards
313
252
Comp/Att
23/41(56%)
27/43(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.01
Rushing Yards
162
63
Rush Attempts
29
23
Yards / Rush
5.6
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
29
21
Passing 1st downs
16
15
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
40%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
17%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-13.65
-8.35
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-21
Sack EPA
-1.56
-9.38
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
30
40
Penalty EPA
-3.77
-7.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+92
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.1
Home QB Adjustment
+0.1
Away QB Adjustment
-2.0
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Value
Ptile
09/07
-1.8
37
09/14
-0.3
48
09/21
5.1
82
10/05
2.8
70
10/12
-0.7
45
10/19
-10.3
2
10/26
1.3
59
11/02
-4.0
26
11/06
-0.5
47
11/16
-6.2
15
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Value
Ptile
09/07
13.1
99
09/14
-4.5
23
09/18
7.6
90
09/28
1.1
58
10/05
2.8
70
10/12
-5.2
18
10/19
-1.8
36
10/26
2.1
66
11/09
0.1
50
11/16
1.9
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Falcons Defense
Browns logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
27
27
Yards / Game
23
32
Passing Yards / Game
22
8
Rushing Yards / Game
16
21

EPA

EPA / Play
27
28
EPA / Pass
22
29
EPA / Rush
23
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
20
Interceptions / Game
19
13
Fumbles / Game
4
16
Turnover EPA / Game
25
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
19
RZ Efficiency
23
21
Falcons Offense vs Browns Defense
Falcons logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
12
9
Yards / Game
7
22
Passing Yards / Game
2
17
Rushing Yards / Game
24
32

EPA

EPA / Play
11
8
EPA / Pass
11
3
EPA / Rush
22
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
20
Interceptions / Game
17
2
Fumbles / Game
15
16
Turnover EPA / Game
14
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
6
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
-3
L
W
O
09/14
2
W
W
O
09/21
-2
L
P
O
10/05
1
W
P
O
10/12
21
W
W
U
10/19
-18
L
L
U
10/26
10
W
W
U
11/02
5
W
L
U
11/06
21
W
W
U
11/16
-16
L
L
U
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
3
W
W
O
09/14
-14
L
L
U
09/18
42
W
W
O
09/28
-13
L
L
O
10/05
-10
L
L
U
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/19
-22
L
L
U
10/26
-1
L
W
U
11/09
10
W
W
U
11/16
2
W
L
U