CLEBrowns
3-2
6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
8 mph
24
JAXJaguars
0-6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
3
0
0
6
Jaguars
0
7
3
14
24
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
266
336
Total Plays
74
68
Yards / Play
3.6
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.47
-0.24
Passing Yards
197
151
Comp/Att
16/41(39%)
17/31(55%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.55
-0.64
Rushing Yards
69
185
Rush Attempts
30
35
Yards / Rush
2.3
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.37
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
24%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.21
-9.04
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-8
Sack EPA
-9.22
-3.56
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
50
25
Penalty EPA
-5.13
-3.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-99
Home nfelo
1,289
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+34.4
Home QB Adjustment
+41.1
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+41.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
26
Yards / Game
23
26
Passing Yards / Game
22
29
Rushing Yards / Game
16
27
EPA
EPA / Play
27
22
EPA / Pass
22
22
EPA / Rush
23
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
1
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
4
5
Turnover EPA / Game
25
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
23
4th Down Efficiency
27
9
RZ Efficiency
23
9
Jaguars Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
9
Yards / Game
31
22
Passing Yards / Game
21
17
Rushing Yards / Game
21
32
EPA
EPA / Play
31
8
EPA / Pass
32
3
EPA / Rush
16
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
20
Interceptions / Game
26
2
Fumbles / Game
10
16
Turnover EPA / Game
11
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
31
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
3-7
SU
4-4-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jaguars
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U