CLEBrowns
3-6
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
8 mph
24
JAXJaguars
5-4
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
76°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
7
4
3
14
Jaguars
3
7
0
14
24
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
283
371
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
4.7
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.14
Passing Yards
195
226
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.31
Rushing Yards
88
145
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.17
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
24
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
44%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
6
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-1.39
-28.21
Sacks
6
4
Sack Yards
-46
-28
Sack EPA
-8.70
-6.38
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
45
10
Penalty EPA
-4.55
-2.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,391
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.7
Home QB Adjustment
+16.8
Away QB Adjustment
+20.5
Market Regression
+8.1
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
26
Yards / Game
30
27
Passing Yards / Game
28
16
Rushing Yards / Game
21
22
EPA
EPA / Play
23
30
EPA / Pass
27
31
EPA / Rush
22
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
19
23
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
11
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
27
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
27
20
Jaguars Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
12
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
19
11
Rushing Yards / Game
3
26
EPA
EPA / Play
9
23
EPA / Pass
21
25
EPA / Rush
3
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
16
Interceptions / Game
27
8
Fumbles / Game
9
17
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
28
4th Down Efficiency
6
31
RZ Efficiency
2
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jaguars
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U