nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ lions week 11, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CLE logo
CLEBrowns
1-8
37
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
38
DETLions
1-8
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
24
3
0
8
35
Lions
10
14
7
7
38

Spread

CLE logo
+3

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
441
473
Total Plays
76
61
Yards / Play
5.8
7.8
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.27
Passing Yards
308
416
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
9.7
EPA / Pass
+0.58
+0.29
Rushing Yards
133
57
Rush Attempts
41
17
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
22
26
Passing 1st downs
16
20
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
53%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
19
10
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.54
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-6
Sack EPA
-1.08
-1.54
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
69
41
Penalty EPA
-6.41
-11.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,267
Away nfelo
1,290
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.9
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

B. Quinn headshot

B. Quinn

Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Value
Ptile
11/06
5.1
85
11/17
-4.1
21
11/23
-8.5
5
09/13
-3.0
31
09/20
-7.1
11
09/27
-5.2
19
11/16
-13.0
1
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Value
Ptile
09/13
-7.1
10
09/20
-4.0
24
09/27
2.5
66
10/04
-0.1
48
11/01
-5.6
16
11/08
-10.1
3
11/15
0.5
54

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Lions Defense
Browns logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
29
32
Yards / Game
32
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
30
Rushing Yards / Game
8
25

EPA

EPA / Play
27
29
EPA / Pass
32
31
EPA / Rush
15
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
9
Interceptions / Game
22
30
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
29
RZ Efficiency
28
17
Lions Offense vs Browns Defense
Lions logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
27
21
Yards / Game
26
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
28
Rushing Yards / Game
23
28

EPA

EPA / Play
30
24
EPA / Pass
29
29
EPA / Rush
25
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
23
Interceptions / Game
32
29
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
1
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
17
4th Down Efficiency
32
15
RZ Efficiency
24
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
-31
L
L
P
09/13
-14
L
L
O
09/20
-21
L
L
U
09/27
-31
L
L
U
10/04
-3
L
W
O
10/11
3
W
W
U
10/18
-13
L
W
O
10/25
-28
L
L
U
11/01
-24
L
L
U
11/16
-16
L
L
U
DET logo

Lions

1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
-10
L
W
P
09/13
-18
L
L
O
09/20
-14
L
L
U
09/27
5
W
W
U
10/04
-24
L
L
O
10/11
-8
L
W
O
10/18
-26
L
L
U
11/01
-7
L
L
U
11/08
-12
L
L
O
11/15
-17
L
P
U