CLEBrowns
1-8
37
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
038
DETLions
1-8
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
24
3
0
8
35
Lions
10
14
7
7
38
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
441
473
Total Plays
76
61
Yards / Play
5.8
7.8
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.27
Passing Yards
308
416
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
26/43(60%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
9.7
EPA / Pass
+0.58
+0.29
Rushing Yards
133
57
Rush Attempts
41
17
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
26
Passing 1st downs
16
20
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
53%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
10
5
3rd Down Attempts
19
10
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.54
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-6
Sack EPA
-1.08
-1.54
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
69
41
Penalty EPA
-6.41
-11.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+53
Home nfelo
1,269
Away nfelo
1,293
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+6.9
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Quinn
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
32
Yards / Game
32
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
30
Rushing Yards / Game
8
25
EPA
EPA / Play
27
29
EPA / Pass
32
31
EPA / Rush
15
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
9
Interceptions / Game
22
30
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
25
4th Down Efficiency
4
29
RZ Efficiency
28
17
Lions Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
21
Yards / Game
26
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
28
Rushing Yards / Game
23
28
EPA
EPA / Play
30
24
EPA / Pass
29
29
EPA / Rush
25
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
23
Interceptions / Game
32
29
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
1
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
17
4th Down Efficiency
32
15
RZ Efficiency
24
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Lions
1-9
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U