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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ panthers week 16, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
7-7
13
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
48°F
3 mph
17
CARPanthers
5-8
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
48°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
3
7
13
Panthers
3
7
0
7
17

Spread

CLE logo
+6

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
228
404
Total Plays
46
77
Yards / Play
5.0
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.01
Passing Yards
144
195
Comp/Att
10/21(48%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.12
Rushing Yards
84
209
Rush Attempts
22
45
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
8
27
Passing 1st downs
4
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+0.50
-4.93
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-6
Sack EPA
-4.75
-1.24
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
49
49
Penalty EPA
-3.96
-4.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model60.1%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.4%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+14
Home nfelo
1,399
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.0
Home QB Adjustment
+39.6
Away QB Adjustment
+26.7
Market Regression
+16.1
Final Difference
71.0
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Manziel headshot

J. Manziel

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+26.7
Value
Ptile
12/14
-11.0
2
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+39.6
Value
Ptile
09/28
-1.4
40
10/05
-1.5
39
10/12
12.3
99
10/19
-2.4
33
10/26
-7.1
10
10/30
-7.4
9
11/10
-9.5
4
11/16
0.2
51
11/30
-4.7
22
12/07
11.6
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Panthers Defense
Browns logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
20
Yards / Game
23
6
Passing Yards / Game
22
19
Rushing Yards / Game
16
11

EPA

EPA / Play
27
16
EPA / Pass
22
14
EPA / Rush
23
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
14
Interceptions / Game
19
15
Fumbles / Game
4
4
Turnover EPA / Game
25
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
21
4th Down Efficiency
27
14
RZ Efficiency
23
29
Panthers Offense vs Browns Defense
Panthers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
19
9
Yards / Game
15
22
Passing Yards / Game
20
17
Rushing Yards / Game
7
32

EPA

EPA / Play
17
8
EPA / Pass
19
3
EPA / Rush
11
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
20
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
14
16
Turnover EPA / Game
12
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
25
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
21
W
W
U
10/19
-18
L
L
U
10/26
10
W
W
U
11/02
5
W
L
U
11/06
21
W
W
U
11/16
-16
L
L
U
11/23
2
W
W
O
11/30
-16
L
L
U
12/07
-1
L
W
U
12/14
-30
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

3-6-1
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
7
W
W
O
10/12
0
T
W
O
10/19
-21
L
L
O
10/26
-4
L
W
U
10/30
-18
L
L
U
11/10
-24
L
L
O
11/16
-2
L
W
U
11/30
-18
L
L
O
12/07
31
W
W
O
12/14
2
W
L
U