CLEBrowns
2-4
13
TBD
Gillette Stadium
49°F
11 mph
27
NEPatriots
7-0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
49°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
7
3
3
13
Patriots
11
0
7
3
21
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
310
318
Total Plays
58
66
Yards / Play
5.3
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.08
Passing Yards
151
239
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.14
Rushing Yards
159
79
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
7.2
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.96
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-43
-20
Sack EPA
-7.65
-5.38
Penalties
13
4
Penalty Yards
85
32
Penalty EPA
-10.25
-1.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model80.3%
Spread Pick
Patriots-10.0
Expected Value
+3.8%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+279
Home nfelo
1,733
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+11.7
Base HFA
+52.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-40.9
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
-19.7
Market Regression
-3.0
Final Difference
244.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-19.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
1
Yards / Game
22
1
Passing Yards / Game
14
4
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8
EPA
EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
21
1
EPA / Rush
12
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
29
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
2
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Patriots Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
20
Yards / Game
14
21
Passing Yards / Game
20
10
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30
EPA
EPA / Play
16
20
EPA / Pass
18
15
EPA / Rush
15
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
17
Interceptions / Game
10
10
Fumbles / Game
15
25
Turnover EPA / Game
28
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
12
4th Down Efficiency
26
4
RZ Efficiency
26
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Patriots
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U