CLEBrowns
4-8
26
TBD
Gillette Stadium
30°F
5 mph
27
NEPatriots
9-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
30°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
3
13
7
26
Patriots
0
0
11
16
27
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
494
486
Total Plays
71
79
Yards / Play
7.0
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.16
Passing Yards
386
399
Comp/Att
29/44(66%)
32/53(60%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.47
+0.08
Rushing Yards
108
87
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
30
Passing 1st downs
17
21
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
47%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.88
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-5
-21
Sack EPA
-1.66
-9.78
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
75
41
Penalty EPA
-9.96
-3.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-12.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model83.0%
Spread Pick
Patriots-10.0
Expected Value
+9.2%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+311
Home nfelo
1,635
Away nfelo
1,387
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.9
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.2
Market Regression
-4.2
Final Difference
275.5
Model Spread
-12.0
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
18
28
Passing Yards / Game
8
22
Rushing Yards / Game
28
28
EPA
EPA / Play
25
15
EPA / Pass
25
14
EPA / Rush
14
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
21
Interceptions / Game
24
10
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
14
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
2
RZ Efficiency
22
11
Patriots Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
23
Yards / Game
6
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
9
Rushing Yards / Game
8
18
EPA
EPA / Play
3
17
EPA / Pass
8
12
EPA / Rush
13
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
3
Interceptions / Game
5
19
Fumbles / Game
16
24
Turnover EPA / Game
24
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
18
16
RZ Efficiency
8
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U