CLEBrowns
3-8
20
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
61°F
21 mph
17
OAKRaiders
3-8
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
61°F
21 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
10
3
7
20
Raiders
0
3
7
7
17
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
475
429
Total Plays
67
72
Yards / Play
7.1
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.09
Passing Yards
353
344
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
34/54(63%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.18
Rushing Yards
122
85
Rush Attempts
30
17
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
14
20
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
27%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.12
-3.04
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-11
-7
Sack EPA
-1.79
-2.53
Penalties
2
9
Penalty Yards
--
65
Penalty EPA
--
-5.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model50.6%
Spread Pick
Raiders+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+30
Home nfelo
1,375
Away nfelo
1,431
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+1.3
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-3.5
Market Regression
-26.1
Final Difference
-3.8
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
28
Yards / Game
25
17
Passing Yards / Game
24
6
Rushing Yards / Game
24
17
EPA
EPA / Play
26
32
EPA / Pass
27
30
EPA / Rush
13
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
27
23
Fumbles / Game
3
22
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
18
4th Down Efficiency
21
24
RZ Efficiency
30
21
Raiders Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
18
22
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
29
18
EPA
EPA / Play
23
12
EPA / Pass
19
18
EPA / Rush
31
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
15
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
15
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
27
RZ Efficiency
28
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U