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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ raiders week 13, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
3-8
20
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
61°F
21 mph
17
OAKRaiders
3-8
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
61°F
21 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
10
3
7
20
Raiders
0
3
7
7
17

Spread

CLE logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
475
429
Total Plays
67
72
Yards / Play
7.1
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.09
Passing Yards
353
344
Comp/Att
25/36(69%)
34/54(63%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.18
Rushing Yards
122
85
Rush Attempts
30
17
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
23
25
Passing 1st downs
14
20
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
27%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.12
-3.04
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-11
-7
Sack EPA
-1.79
-2.53
Penalties
2
9
Penalty Yards
--
65
Penalty EPA
--
-5.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model50.8%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+27
Home nfelo
1,373
Away nfelo
1,433
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+1.3
Home QB Adjustment
-2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-3.5
Market Regression
-28.0
Final Difference
-5.7
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

B. Weeden headshot

B. Weeden

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-3.5
Value
Ptile
09/16
6.3
88
09/23
-5.3
16
09/27
-2.2
34
10/07
1.9
61
10/14
-0.6
46
10/21
5.3
83
10/28
-7.9
6
11/04
-5.6
15
11/18
0.4
52
11/25
-3.6
27
C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.2
Value
Ptile
09/16
2.3
63
09/23
4.2
76
09/30
-4.5
22
10/14
2.2
63
10/21
0.9
55
10/28
-0.3
48
11/04
4.2
76
11/11
3.8
74
11/18
-3.9
25
11/25
-6.5
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Raiders Defense
Browns logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
24
28
Yards / Game
25
17
Passing Yards / Game
24
6
Rushing Yards / Game
24
17

EPA

EPA / Play
26
32
EPA / Pass
27
30
EPA / Rush
13
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
27
23
Fumbles / Game
3
22
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
18
4th Down Efficiency
21
24
RZ Efficiency
30
21
Raiders Offense vs Browns Defense
Raiders logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
18
22
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
29
18

EPA

EPA / Play
23
12
EPA / Pass
19
18
EPA / Rush
31
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
15
Interceptions / Game
18
11
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
15
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
14
4th Down Efficiency
31
27
RZ Efficiency
28
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
-7
L
P
O
09/23
-10
L
L
U
09/27
-7
L
W
U
10/07
-14
L
L
O
10/14
10
W
W
O
10/21
-4
L
L
U
10/28
1
W
W
U
11/04
-10
L
L
U
11/18
-3
L
W
U
11/25
6
W
W
O
OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/16
-22
L
L
O
09/23
3
W
W
O
09/30
-31
L
L
U
10/14
-3
L
W
U
10/21
3
W
L
O
10/28
10
W
W
O
11/04
-10
L
L
O
11/11
-35
L
L
O
11/18
-21
L
L
U
11/25
-24
L
L
U