CLEBrowns
0-1
10
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
80°F
2 mph
24
BALRavens
1-0
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
80°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
7
3
0
10
Ravens
7
14
0
3
24
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
386
337
Total Plays
66
68
Yards / Play
5.8
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.02
Passing Yards
293
201
Comp/Att
20/42(48%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.20
Rushing Yards
93
136
Rush Attempts
21
32
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
17%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
2
Interceptions
4
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-21.43
-7.23
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-7
-16
Sack EPA
-5.26
-3.75
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
65
45
Penalty EPA
-8.69
-4.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,376
Home Field
+31.6
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.1
Home QB Adjustment
-5.4
Away QB Adjustment
-8.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
D. Kizer
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.4
Value
Ptile
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
5
Yards / Game
24
12
Passing Yards / Game
15
12
Rushing Yards / Game
18
16
EPA
EPA / Play
31
2
EPA / Pass
32
2
EPA / Rush
4
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
25
Interceptions / Game
32
1
Fumbles / Game
25
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
8
4th Down Efficiency
12
11
RZ Efficiency
24
9
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
31
Yards / Game
27
13
Passing Yards / Game
31
31
Rushing Yards / Game
10
7
EPA
EPA / Play
14
27
EPA / Pass
20
27
EPA / Rush
14
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
6
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
17
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
23
4th Down Efficiency
4
18
RZ Efficiency
9
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U