CLEBrowns
1-2
40
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
83°F
8 mph
25
BALRavens
2-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
83°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
3
14
16
40
Ravens
0
7
3
15
25
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
530
397
Total Plays
62
68
Yards / Play
8.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.34
+0.00
Passing Yards
337
222
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
10.5
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.45
-0.05
Rushing Yards
193
175
Rush Attempts
29
30
Yards / Rush
6.7
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.32
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.00
-11.63
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-5
-25
Sack EPA
-2.13
-5.45
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
41
15
Penalty EPA
-4.06
-3.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,586
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+30.8
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+29.3
Home QB Adjustment
+17.4
Away QB Adjustment
-11.9
Market Regression
+29.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
3
Yards / Game
18
3
Passing Yards / Game
14
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
7
EPA
EPA / Play
22
7
EPA / Pass
20
3
EPA / Rush
17
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
26
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
2
6
Turnover EPA / Game
7
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
14
4th Down Efficiency
23
3
RZ Efficiency
13
7
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
2
21
Passing Yards / Game
23
10
Rushing Yards / Game
1
29
EPA
EPA / Play
1
20
EPA / Pass
1
15
EPA / Rush
1
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
17
Interceptions / Game
10
10
Fumbles / Game
9
25
Turnover EPA / Game
30
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
4
RZ Efficiency
5
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U