CLEBrowns
1-3
33
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
65°F
2 mph
30
BALRavens
1-3
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
65°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Browns
3
6
7
14
3
33
Ravens
14
0
7
9
0
30
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
507
377
Total Plays
82
68
Yards / Play
6.2
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.15
Passing Yards
424
196
Comp/Att
36/53(68%)
19/36(53%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.04
Rushing Yards
83
181
Rush Attempts
25
31
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
22
Passing 1st downs
18
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
63%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
12
5
3rd Down Attempts
19
14
Red Zone %
40%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-35
-14
Sack EPA
-6.49
-2.00
Penalties
9
12
Penalty Yards
74
98
Penalty EPA
-11.57
-10.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+160
Home nfelo
1,536
Away nfelo
1,427
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.3
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+4.0
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
24
Yards / Game
26
10
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
22
12
EPA
EPA / Play
29
21
EPA / Pass
28
24
EPA / Rush
18
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
11
32
Fumbles / Game
31
15
Turnover EPA / Game
6
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
20
4th Down Efficiency
26
11
RZ Efficiency
32
11
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
29
Yards / Game
14
28
Passing Yards / Game
25
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
30
EPA
EPA / Play
22
29
EPA / Pass
23
30
EPA / Rush
26
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
31
20
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
8
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
21
4th Down Efficiency
15
27
RZ Efficiency
24
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U