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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ ravens week 5, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
1-3
33
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
65°F
2 mph
30
BALRavens
1-3
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
65°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Browns
3
6
7
14
3
33
Ravens
14
0
7
9
0
30

Spread

CLE logo
+6

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
507
377
Total Plays
82
68
Yards / Play
6.2
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.15
Passing Yards
424
196
Comp/Att
36/53(68%)
19/36(53%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.30
+0.04
Rushing Yards
83
181
Rush Attempts
25
31
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
25
22
Passing 1st downs
18
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
63%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
12
5
3rd Down Attempts
19
14
Red Zone %
40%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-35
-14
Sack EPA
-6.49
-2.00
Penalties
9
12
Penalty Yards
74
98
Penalty EPA
-11.57
-10.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+158
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.3
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+4.0
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Value
Ptile
11/16
2.6
69
11/23
-6.8
11
11/30
-5.0
19
12/07
-7.8
8
12/14
-4.4
24
12/21
-13.2
1
12/28
-6.9
11
09/13
-3.2
27
09/27
-2.9
29
10/04
5.5
84
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Value
Ptile
12/07
6.9
89
12/14
2.2
67
12/21
-9.2
5
12/28
5.0
82
01/03
1.7
63
01/10
4.8
81
09/13
-9.3
2
09/20
6.8
90
09/27
6.1
87
10/01
-8.0
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Browns logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
30
24
Yards / Game
26
10
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
22
12

EPA

EPA / Play
29
21
EPA / Pass
28
24
EPA / Rush
18
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
11
32
Fumbles / Game
31
15
Turnover EPA / Game
6
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
20
4th Down Efficiency
26
11
RZ Efficiency
32
11
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Ravens logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
24
29
Yards / Game
14
28
Passing Yards / Game
25
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
30

EPA

EPA / Play
22
29
EPA / Pass
23
30
EPA / Rush
26
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
31
20
Fumbles / Game
3
9
Turnover EPA / Game
8
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
21
4th Down Efficiency
15
27
RZ Efficiency
24
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
2
W
W
O
11/30
-16
L
L
U
12/07
-1
L
W
U
12/14
-30
L
L
U
12/21
-4
L
W
U
12/28
-10
L
W
U
09/13
-21
L
L
O
09/20
14
W
W
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-3
L
W
O
BAL logo

Ravens

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
15
W
W
U
12/14
8
W
L
U
12/21
-12
L
L
U
12/28
10
W
L
U
01/03
13
W
W
U
01/10
-4
L
W
O
09/13
-6
L
L
U
09/20
-4
L
L
O
09/27
-4
L
L
O
10/01
3
W
P
U