CLEBrowns
5-3
33
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
49°F
4 mph
31
BALRavens
7-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
49°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
6
8
10
27
Ravens
11
0
7
7
25
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
375
306
Total Plays
76
50
Yards / Play
4.9
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.00
Passing Yards
195
200
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
13/23(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.26
Rushing Yards
180
106
Rush Attempts
37
24
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
17
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
50%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
8
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.77
-4.64
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-18
-23
Sack EPA
-4.66
-4.98
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
55
64
Penalty EPA
-11.73
-5.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model65.0%
Spread Pick
Browns+5.5
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+69
Home nfelo
1,601
Away nfelo
1,558
Home Field
+24.0
Base HFA
+43.8
Divisional Adj
-19.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.3
Home QB Adjustment
+20.6
Away QB Adjustment
+18.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
107.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.3
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
1
Yards / Game
16
4
Passing Yards / Game
5
15
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12
EPA
EPA / Play
28
2
EPA / Pass
28
2
EPA / Rush
23
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
32
10
Fumbles / Game
26
20
Turnover EPA / Game
1
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
9
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
15
2
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
21
Yards / Game
6
1
Passing Yards / Game
20
2
Rushing Yards / Game
1
10
EPA
EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
9
1
EPA / Rush
4
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
11
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
30
18
Turnover EPA / Game
18
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
1
RZ Efficiency
7
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U