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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ ravens week 10, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
5-3
33
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
49°F
4 mph
31
BALRavens
7-2
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
49°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
6
8
10
27
Ravens
11
0
7
7
25

Spread

CLE logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
375
306
Total Plays
76
50
Yards / Play
4.9
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.00
Passing Yards
195
200
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
13/23(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.01
-0.26
Rushing Yards
180
106
Rush Attempts
37
24
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
24
17
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
12
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
50%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
8
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.77
-4.64
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-18
-23
Sack EPA
-4.66
-4.98
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
55
64
Penalty EPA
-11.73
-5.28

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model64.9%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.8%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,558
Home Field
+24.0
Base HFA
+43.7
Divisional Adj
-19.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.3
Home QB Adjustment
+20.8
Away QB Adjustment
+18.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
106.8
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+18.5
Value
Ptile
12/11
1.4
62
12/17
-2.2
35
12/24
-4.1
22
01/01
-2.4
33
01/08
-3.9
23
09/10
-1.2
41
09/18
-6.4
12
09/24
5.1
82
10/22
-9.7
4
11/05
2.4
67
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+20.8
Value
Ptile
12/04
-6.4
12
09/10
-3.7
26
09/17
7.9
93
09/24
6.1
87
10/01
6.7
90
10/08
-2.7
31
10/15
2.5
67
10/22
13.8
100
10/29
-4.5
22
11/05
3.6
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Ravens Defense
Browns logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
12
1
Yards / Game
16
4
Passing Yards / Game
5
15
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12

EPA

EPA / Play
28
2
EPA / Pass
28
2
EPA / Rush
23
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
32
10
Fumbles / Game
26
20
Turnover EPA / Game
1
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
9
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
15
2
Ravens Offense vs Browns Defense
Ravens logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
4
21
Yards / Game
6
1
Passing Yards / Game
20
2
Rushing Yards / Game
1
10

EPA

EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
9
1
EPA / Rush
4
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
11
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
30
18
Turnover EPA / Game
18
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
1
RZ Efficiency
7
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
14
W
W
U
01/08
-14
L
L
O
09/10
21
W
W
U
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/24
24
W
W
U
10/01
-25
L
L
U
10/15
2
W
W
P
10/22
1
W
L
O
10/29
-4
L
P
O
11/05
27
W
W
U
BAL logo

Ravens

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/15
-7
L
W
O
09/10
16
W
W
U
09/17
3
W
W
O
09/24
-3
L
L
U
10/01
25
W
W
U
10/08
-7
L
L
U
10/15
8
W
W
U
10/22
32
W
W
O
10/29
7
W
L
O
11/05
34
W
W
U