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  1. nfelo...
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  3. browns @ saints week 7, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
1-5
30
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
17
NOSaints
4-2
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
10
4
0
4
18
Saints
0
3
0
14
17

Spread

CLE logo
+12.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
210
394
Total Plays
46
77
Yards / Play
4.6
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.22
Passing Yards
85
336
Comp/Att
10/17(59%)
37/56(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.34
-0.16
Rushing Yards
125
58
Rush Attempts
28
18
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
12
25
Passing 1st downs
3
21
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
18%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-23.83
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-20
Sack EPA
-1.34
-2.08
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
30
88
Penalty EPA
-4.23
-8.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-15.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5

Win Probability

Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+296
Home nfelo
1,595
Away nfelo
1,361
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.7
Home QB Adjustment
+8.4
Away QB Adjustment
+19.2
Market Regression
-63.4
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5

Quarterbacks

D. McCoy headshot

D. McCoy

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
Value
Ptile
10/17
-1.5
40
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
Value
Ptile
12/27
7.9
92
01/16
7.4
90
01/24
3.0
69
02/07
8.6
94
09/09
3.5
72
09/20
5.7
86
09/26
7.2
91
10/03
4.1
76
10/10
-1.3
42
10/17
5.9
87

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Saints Defense
Browns logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
31
10
Yards / Game
30
9
Passing Yards / Game
28
5
Rushing Yards / Game
21
18

EPA

EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
22
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
30
Interceptions / Game
19
32
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
11
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
7
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
27
5
Saints Offense vs Browns Defense
Saints logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
8
12
Yards / Game
5
22
Passing Yards / Game
2
11
Rushing Yards / Game
28
26

EPA

EPA / Play
8
23
EPA / Pass
6
25
EPA / Rush
21
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
16
Interceptions / Game
26
8
Fumbles / Game
20
17
Turnover EPA / Game
13
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
31
RZ Efficiency
19
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
7
W
W
U
12/20
7
W
W
O
12/27
14
W
W
U
01/03
6
W
W
O
09/12
-3
L
L
U
09/19
-2
L
L
U
09/26
-7
L
W
O
10/03
3
W
W
O
10/10
-10
L
L
U
10/17
-18
L
L
O
NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-13
L
L
U
01/16
31
W
W
O
01/24
3
W
L
O
02/07
14
W
W
U
09/09
5
W
W
U
09/20
3
W
L
O
09/26
-3
L
L
O
10/03
2
W
L
U
10/10
-10
L
L
O
10/17
25
W
W
U