CLEBrowns
1-5
30
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
017
NOSaints
4-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
10
4
0
4
18
Saints
0
3
0
14
17
Spread
+12.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
210
394
Total Plays
46
77
Yards / Play
4.6
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.22
Passing Yards
85
336
Comp/Att
10/17(59%)
37/56(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.34
-0.16
Rushing Yards
125
58
Rush Attempts
28
18
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
25
Passing 1st downs
3
21
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
18%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-23.83
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-20
Sack EPA
-1.34
-2.08
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
30
88
Penalty EPA
-4.23
-8.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-15.0
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+297
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,361
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.7
Home QB Adjustment
+8.4
Away QB Adjustment
+19.2
Market Regression
-63.4
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
Value
Ptile
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
10
Yards / Game
30
9
Passing Yards / Game
28
5
Rushing Yards / Game
21
18
EPA
EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
27
13
EPA / Rush
22
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
30
Interceptions / Game
19
32
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
11
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
7
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
27
5
Saints Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
12
Yards / Game
5
22
Passing Yards / Game
2
11
Rushing Yards / Game
28
26
EPA
EPA / Play
8
23
EPA / Pass
6
25
EPA / Rush
21
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
16
Interceptions / Game
26
8
Fumbles / Game
20
17
Turnover EPA / Game
13
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
31
RZ Efficiency
19
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U