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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ steelers week 1, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
-
27
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
71°F
6 mph
30
PITSteelers
-
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
71°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
14
10
27
Steelers
10
17
0
3
30

Spread

CLE logo
+6

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
389
503
Total Plays
64
67
Yards / Play
6.1
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.12
Passing Yards
198
376
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
10.7
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.37
Rushing Yards
191
127
Rush Attempts
31
29
Yards / Rush
6.2
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
23
24
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
18%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.80
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-24
-14
Sack EPA
-3.39
-4.06
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
55
96
Penalty EPA
-4.06
-7.89

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+189
Home nfelo
1,533
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+30.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.9
Away QB Adjustment
-24.9
Market Regression
-7.5
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-24.9
Value
Ptile
12/30
-1.9
37
09/22
-3.7
26
09/29
3.1
71
10/03
-3.9
25
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
Value
Ptile
10/27
-5.6
17
11/03
2.0
63
11/10
-4.6
21
11/17
9.5
95
11/24
3.5
74
11/28
6.7
89
12/08
6.3
87
12/15
0.9
56
12/22
1.2
58
12/29
-4.4
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Browns logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
21
Yards / Game
23
17
Passing Yards / Game
22
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
6

EPA

EPA / Play
27
27
EPA / Pass
22
25
EPA / Rush
23
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
17
Interceptions / Game
19
26
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
25
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
9
4th Down Efficiency
27
32
RZ Efficiency
23
19
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Steelers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
7
9
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
6
17
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32

EPA

EPA / Play
4
8
EPA / Pass
3
3
EPA / Rush
19
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
20
Interceptions / Game
7
2
Fumbles / Game
21
16
Turnover EPA / Game
21
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
20
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
-18
L
L
U
10/27
-6
L
W
O
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/17
-21
L
L
O
11/24
-16
L
L
U
12/01
-4
L
L
O
12/08
-1
L
W
O
12/15
-7
L
L
O
12/22
-11
L
L
U
12/29
-13
L
L
U
PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/27
-3
L
L
U
11/03
-24
L
L
O
11/10
13
W
W
U
11/17
10
W
W
O
11/24
16
W
W
U
11/28
-2
L
W
O
12/08
-6
L
L
O
12/15
10
W
W
O
12/22
7
W
W
O
12/29
13
W
W
U