CLEBrowns
-
27
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
71°F
6 mph
30
PITSteelers
-
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
71°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
14
10
27
Steelers
10
17
0
3
30
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
503
Total Plays
64
67
Yards / Play
6.1
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.12
Passing Yards
198
376
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
10.7
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.37
Rushing Yards
191
127
Rush Attempts
31
29
Yards / Rush
6.2
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
24
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
18%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.80
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-24
-14
Sack EPA
-3.39
-4.06
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
55
96
Penalty EPA
-4.06
-7.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+191
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+30.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.9
Away QB Adjustment
-24.9
Market Regression
-8.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-24.9
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
21
Yards / Game
23
17
Passing Yards / Game
22
22
Rushing Yards / Game
16
6
EPA
EPA / Play
27
27
EPA / Pass
22
25
EPA / Rush
23
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
17
Interceptions / Game
19
26
Fumbles / Game
4
14
Turnover EPA / Game
25
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
9
4th Down Efficiency
27
32
RZ Efficiency
23
19
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
9
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
6
17
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32
EPA
EPA / Play
4
8
EPA / Pass
3
3
EPA / Rush
19
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
20
Interceptions / Game
7
2
Fumbles / Game
21
16
Turnover EPA / Game
21
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
11
4th Down Efficiency
10
29
RZ Efficiency
20
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U