CLEBrowns
1-4
14
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
41°F
9 mph
27
PITSteelers
3-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
41°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
7
7
0
14
Steelers
0
17
7
3
27
Spread
+14
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
197
543
Total Plays
51
74
Yards / Play
3.9
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.10
Passing Yards
106
403
Comp/Att
9/26(35%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
11.5
EPA / Pass
-0.69
+0.60
Rushing Yards
91
140
Rush Attempts
23
36
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
28
Passing 1st downs
6
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
4
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
3
Turnover EPA
-14.27
-17.46
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-14
Sack EPA
-7.89
-3.81
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
45
30
Penalty EPA
-5.52
-3.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+298
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,374
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.2
Home QB Adjustment
+19.8
Away QB Adjustment
-4.4
Market Regression
-9.6
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
D. Anderson
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
32
6
Passing Yards / Game
30
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
5
EPA
EPA / Play
27
22
EPA / Pass
32
13
EPA / Rush
15
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
2
Interceptions / Game
22
25
Fumbles / Game
25
16
Turnover EPA / Game
6
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
30
RZ Efficiency
28
6
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
7
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
28
Rushing Yards / Game
20
28
EPA
EPA / Play
7
24
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
14
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
23
Interceptions / Game
10
29
Fumbles / Game
19
28
Turnover EPA / Game
13
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
26
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
2-3-5
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-2-5
O/U