nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ steelers week 6, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

CLE logo
CLEBrowns
1-4
14
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
41°F
9 mph
27
PITSteelers
3-2
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
41°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
7
7
0
14
Steelers
0
17
7
3
27

Spread

CLE logo
+14

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
197
543
Total Plays
51
74
Yards / Play
3.9
7.3
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.10
Passing Yards
106
403
Comp/Att
9/26(35%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
11.5
EPA / Pass
-0.69
+0.60
Rushing Yards
91
140
Rush Attempts
23
36
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
12
28
Passing 1st downs
6
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
38%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
4
4
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
3
Turnover EPA
-14.27
-17.46
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-14
Sack EPA
-7.89
-3.81
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
45
30
Penalty EPA
-5.52
-3.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+298
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,374
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.2
Home QB Adjustment
+19.8
Away QB Adjustment
-4.4
Market Regression
-9.6
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0

Quarterbacks

D. Anderson headshot

D. Anderson

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
Value
Ptile
09/14
-6.2
10
09/21
-13.5
0
09/28
-2.4
32
10/13
6.8
90
10/19
-4.6
18
10/26
0.6
56
11/02
0.8
58
11/30
-4.8
17
10/04
0.1
51
10/11
-11.1
2
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.8
Value
Ptile
12/21
0.6
56
12/28
-3.6
24
01/11
0.0
52
01/18
-1.8
38
02/01
-0.9
46
09/10
2.7
67
09/20
1.7
61
09/27
4.7
80
10/04
6.4
87
10/11
2.1
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Browns logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
32
6
Passing Yards / Game
30
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
5

EPA

EPA / Play
27
22
EPA / Pass
32
13
EPA / Rush
15
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
2
Interceptions / Game
22
25
Fumbles / Game
25
16
Turnover EPA / Game
6
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
30
RZ Efficiency
28
6
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Steelers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
7
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
28
Rushing Yards / Game
20
28

EPA

EPA / Play
7
24
EPA / Pass
10
29
EPA / Rush
14
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
23
Interceptions / Game
10
29
Fumbles / Game
19
28
Turnover EPA / Game
13
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
26
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
2-3-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
-4
L
P
P
12/07
-19
L
L
P
12/15
-20
L
L
P
12/21
-14
L
L
P
12/28
-31
L
L
P
09/13
-14
L
L
O
09/20
-21
L
L
U
09/27
-31
L
L
U
10/04
-3
L
W
O
10/11
3
W
W
U
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-2-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
-17
L
L
P
12/28
31
W
W
P
01/11
11
W
W
P
01/18
9
W
W
P
02/01
4
W
L
P
09/10
3
W
L
U
09/20
-3
L
L
U
09/27
-3
L
L
O
10/04
10
W
W
O
10/11
8
W
L
O