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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ steelers week 10, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
2-7
9
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
61°F
12 mph
30
PITSteelers
5-4
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
61°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
0
6
9
Steelers
6
15
3
6
30

Spread

PIT logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
342
461
Total Plays
65
60
Yards / Play
5.3
7.7
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.18
Passing Yards
327
401
Comp/Att
33/45(73%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
10.6
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.20
Rushing Yards
15
60
Rush Attempts
14
21
Yards / Rush
1.1
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
38%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
25%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-12.67
-4.41
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-45
-3
Sack EPA
-13.78
-1.92
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
188
50
Penalty EPA
-20.21
-5.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model67.6%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.3%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,386
Home Field
+34.2
Base HFA
+62.3
Divisional Adj
-28.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-90.2
Home QB Adjustment
-111.8
Away QB Adjustment
-21.7
Market Regression
+11.8
Final Difference
127.8
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

J. Manziel headshot

J. Manziel

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-21.7
Value
Ptile
12/14
-11.0
2
12/21
-6.5
13
09/20
-1.2
42
11/05
-3.8
23
M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-111.8
Value
Ptile
10/25
-5.9
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Browns logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
5

EPA

EPA / Play
29
9
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
18
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
11
8
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
6
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
15
4th Down Efficiency
26
4
RZ Efficiency
32
6
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Steelers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
7
29
Yards / Game
3
28
Passing Yards / Game
13
2
Rushing Yards / Game
14
30

EPA

EPA / Play
9
29
EPA / Pass
12
30
EPA / Rush
7
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
29
20
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
16
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
29
27
RZ Efficiency
13
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
-10
L
W
U
09/13
-21
L
L
O
09/20
14
W
W
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-3
L
W
O
10/11
3
W
W
O
10/18
-3
L
W
O
10/25
-18
L
L
U
11/01
-14
L
L
O
11/05
-21
L
L
U
PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-13
L
L
U
09/10
-7
L
W
U
09/20
25
W
W
O
09/27
6
W
W
U
10/01
-3
L
P
U
10/12
4
W
W
U
10/18
12
W
W
U
10/25
-10
L
L
U
11/01
-6
L
L
U
11/08
3
W
L
O