CLEBrowns
2-7
9
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
61°F
12 mph
30
PITSteelers
5-4
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
61°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
0
0
6
9
Steelers
6
15
3
6
30
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
461
Total Plays
65
60
Yards / Play
5.3
7.7
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.18
Passing Yards
327
401
Comp/Att
33/45(73%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
10.6
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.20
Rushing Yards
15
60
Rush Attempts
14
21
Yards / Rush
1.1
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
38%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
25%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-12.67
-4.41
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-45
-3
Sack EPA
-13.78
-1.92
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
188
50
Penalty EPA
-20.21
-5.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model67.6%
Spread Pick
Browns+6.5
Expected Value
+1.3%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,384
Home Field
+34.2
Base HFA
+62.3
Divisional Adj
-28.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-90.2
Home QB Adjustment
-111.8
Away QB Adjustment
-21.7
Market Regression
+11.5
Final Difference
127.5
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
J. Manziel
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-21.7
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-111.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
9
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
5
EPA
EPA / Play
29
9
EPA / Pass
28
13
EPA / Rush
18
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
11
8
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
6
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
15
4th Down Efficiency
26
4
RZ Efficiency
32
6
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
29
Yards / Game
3
28
Passing Yards / Game
13
2
Rushing Yards / Game
14
30
EPA
EPA / Play
9
29
EPA / Pass
12
30
EPA / Rush
7
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
29
20
Fumbles / Game
7
9
Turnover EPA / Game
16
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
21
4th Down Efficiency
29
27
RZ Efficiency
13
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U