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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ steelers week 14, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
3-9
14
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
49°F
12 mph
27
PITSteelers
9-3
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
49°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
0
0
7
14
Steelers
3
10
14
0
27

Spread

PIT logo
-6

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
300
267
Total Plays
69
62
Yards / Play
4.3
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.04
Passing Yards
196
147
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-0.02
Rushing Yards
104
120
Rush Attempts
25
35
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
11
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
15%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-10.80
-0.27
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-11
Sack EPA
-6.24
-1.17
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
81
61
Penalty EPA
-12.03
-8.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+152
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+21.9
Base HFA
+40.0
Divisional Adj
-18.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.4
Home QB Adjustment
+23.5
Away QB Adjustment
+26.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
Value
Ptile
10/25
-0.9
45
10/31
-1.6
41
09/11
-0.1
52
09/18
-9.7
3
09/25
0.0
53
10/27
6.4
86
11/03
-9.9
3
11/17
5.7
82
11/21
1.3
58
12/02
4.7
79
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+23.5
Value
Ptile
12/03
-5.2
18
12/10
-1.3
41
12/16
-1.4
40
12/24
1.3
58
10/20
5.4
81
10/28
-0.0
49
11/10
-4.2
21
11/17
-6.7
9
11/21
1.8
61
12/01
7.2
91

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Browns logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
7
Yards / Game
28
15
Passing Yards / Game
12
23
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11

EPA

EPA / Play
32
8
EPA / Pass
32
16
EPA / Rush
22
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
8
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
11
4th Down Efficiency
18
28
RZ Efficiency
27
13
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Steelers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
20
27
Yards / Game
23
18
Passing Yards / Game
14
10
Rushing Yards / Game
12
21

EPA

EPA / Play
16
9
EPA / Pass
19
21
EPA / Rush
28
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
2
Interceptions / Game
3
32
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
30
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
6
4th Down Efficiency
31
3
RZ Efficiency
29
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-6
L
L
U
09/29
-4
L
L
U
10/06
-21
L
L
O
10/13
-4
L
W
U
10/20
-7
L
L
U
10/27
5
W
W
O
11/03
-17
L
L
U
11/17
-21
L
L
O
11/21
5
W
W
O
12/02
-9
L
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
10
W
W
U
09/29
-3
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
L
U
10/13
19
W
W
O
10/20
22
W
W
O
10/28
8
W
W
O
11/10
1
W
W
O
11/17
2
W
W
U
11/21
-5
L
L
O
12/01
6
W
W
O