CLEBrowns
3-9
14
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
49°F
12 mph
27
PITSteelers
9-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
49°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
0
0
7
14
Steelers
3
10
14
0
27
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
267
Total Plays
69
62
Yards / Play
4.3
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.04
Passing Yards
196
147
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
5.7
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-0.02
Rushing Yards
104
120
Rush Attempts
25
35
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
11
6
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
15%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-10.80
-0.27
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-11
Sack EPA
-6.24
-1.17
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
81
61
Penalty EPA
-12.03
-8.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+152
Home nfelo
1,555
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+21.9
Base HFA
+40.0
Divisional Adj
-18.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.4
Home QB Adjustment
+23.5
Away QB Adjustment
+26.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+23.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
7
Yards / Game
28
15
Passing Yards / Game
12
23
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11
EPA
EPA / Play
32
8
EPA / Pass
32
16
EPA / Rush
22
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
8
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
11
4th Down Efficiency
18
28
RZ Efficiency
27
13
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
27
Yards / Game
23
18
Passing Yards / Game
14
10
Rushing Yards / Game
12
21
EPA
EPA / Play
16
9
EPA / Pass
19
21
EPA / Rush
28
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
2
Interceptions / Game
3
32
Fumbles / Game
31
8
Turnover EPA / Game
30
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
6
4th Down Efficiency
31
3
RZ Efficiency
29
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U