CLEBrowns
5-10
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
28°F
12 mph
24
PITSteelers
7-8
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
28°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
3
7
0
10
Steelers
0
10
7
7
24
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
320
212
Total Plays
62
53
Yards / Play
5.2
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.06
Passing Yards
182
121
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.39
+0.19
Rushing Yards
138
91
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
30%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-14.92
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-22
-13
Sack EPA
-6.59
-3.58
Penalties
9
3
Penalty Yards
79
58
Penalty EPA
-6.67
-5.68
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+234
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,430
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+97.1
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
-87.3
Market Regression
-24.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
T. Lewis
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-87.3
No recent game data available
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
5
Yards / Game
25
1
Passing Yards / Game
24
5
Rushing Yards / Game
24
2
EPA
EPA / Play
26
7
EPA / Pass
27
7
EPA / Rush
13
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
27
27
Fumbles / Game
3
16
Turnover EPA / Game
17
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
4
4th Down Efficiency
21
29
RZ Efficiency
30
11
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
19
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
26
18
EPA
EPA / Play
18
12
EPA / Pass
14
18
EPA / Rush
29
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
15
Interceptions / Game
12
11
Fumbles / Game
28
5
Turnover EPA / Game
13
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
14
4th Down Efficiency
20
27
RZ Efficiency
12
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U