CLEBrowns
4-11
7
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
40°F
5 mph
20
PITSteelers
7-8
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
40°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
0
0
7
7
Steelers
7
7
3
3
20
Spread
-9.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
292
Total Plays
64
61
Yards / Play
4.7
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.07
Passing Yards
221
172
Comp/Att
23/41(56%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.05
Rushing Yards
79
120
Rush Attempts
20
29
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.97
-7.36
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-19
-7
Sack EPA
-7.10
-2.40
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-2.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+176
Home nfelo
1,519
Away nfelo
1,378
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.6
Home QB Adjustment
+19.3
Away QB Adjustment
+18.7
Market Regression
+66.9
Final Difference
222.5
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.7
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
13
Yards / Game
18
13
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
28
21
EPA
EPA / Play
25
13
EPA / Pass
25
10
EPA / Rush
14
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
14
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
9
16
Turnover EPA / Game
14
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
20
4th Down Efficiency
17
17
RZ Efficiency
22
19
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
23
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
14
9
Rushing Yards / Game
27
18
EPA
EPA / Play
18
17
EPA / Pass
9
12
EPA / Rush
29
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
3
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
17
24
Turnover EPA / Game
16
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
31
4th Down Efficiency
9
16
RZ Efficiency
20
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U