CLEBrowns
1-14
24
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
41°F
1 mph
27
PITSteelers
10-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
41°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Browns
7
7
0
7
3
24
Steelers
0
7
0
14
6
27
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
437
312
Total Plays
77
69
Yards / Play
5.7
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.03
Passing Yards
206
243
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.22
Rushing Yards
231
69
Rush Attempts
33
28
Yards / Rush
7.0
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
21
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
53%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-15.03
-0.26
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-26
-34
Sack EPA
-6.96
-8.27
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
37
43
Penalty EPA
-4.55
-1.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model72.4%
Spread Pick
Steelers-3.5
Expected Value
+21.4%
Cover Probability
63.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+259
Home nfelo
1,636
Away nfelo
1,285
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-122.8
Home QB Adjustment
-129.6
Away QB Adjustment
-6.8
Market Regression
-80.1
Final Difference
167.3
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.8
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-129.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
10
Yards / Game
30
10
Passing Yards / Game
16
10
Rushing Yards / Game
18
8
EPA
EPA / Play
27
18
EPA / Pass
27
15
EPA / Rush
23
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
32
Interceptions / Game
16
19
Fumbles / Game
27
15
Turnover EPA / Game
16
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
24
4th Down Efficiency
5
19
RZ Efficiency
15
5
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
30
Yards / Game
6
31
Passing Yards / Game
25
9
Rushing Yards / Game
8
30
EPA
EPA / Play
6
32
EPA / Pass
7
32
EPA / Rush
3
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
1
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
4
32
Turnover EPA / Game
20
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
11
29
RZ Efficiency
16
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Steelers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U