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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ steelers week 17, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
1-14
24
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
41°F
1 mph
27
PITSteelers
10-5
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
41°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Browns
7
7
0
7
3
24
Steelers
0
7
0
14
6
27

Spread

CLE logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
437
312
Total Plays
77
69
Yards / Play
5.7
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.03
Passing Yards
206
243
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.22
Rushing Yards
231
69
Rush Attempts
33
28
Yards / Rush
7.0
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
27
21
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
53%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-15.03
-0.26
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-26
-34
Sack EPA
-6.96
-8.27
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
37
43
Penalty EPA
-4.55
-1.45

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model72.3%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+21.4%
Cover Probability
63.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+258
Home nfelo
1,636
Away nfelo
1,287
Home Field
+31.9
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-122.8
Home QB Adjustment
-129.6
Away QB Adjustment
-6.8
Market Regression
-80.6
Final Difference
166.8
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.8
Value
Ptile
09/14
-4.6
22
11/02
-3.5
28
11/16
-6.0
15
11/23
-7.4
9
12/20
-3.1
29
12/28
1.0
56
09/11
-6.2
10
12/11
-7.4
7
12/18
-1.2
40
12/24
-5.6
13
M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-129.6
Value
Ptile
10/25
-5.9
11
11/15
-5.8
12
10/23
1.1
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Browns logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
10
Yards / Game
30
10
Passing Yards / Game
16
10
Rushing Yards / Game
18
8

EPA

EPA / Play
27
18
EPA / Pass
27
15
EPA / Rush
23
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
32
Interceptions / Game
16
19
Fumbles / Game
27
15
Turnover EPA / Game
16
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
24
4th Down Efficiency
5
19
RZ Efficiency
15
5
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Steelers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
12
30
Yards / Game
6
31
Passing Yards / Game
25
9
Rushing Yards / Game
8
30

EPA

EPA / Play
6
32
EPA / Pass
7
32
EPA / Rush
3
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
1
Interceptions / Game
21
22
Fumbles / Game
4
32
Turnover EPA / Game
20
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
11
29
RZ Efficiency
16
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-2
L
W
O
10/23
-14
L
L
O
10/30
-3
L
L
O
11/06
-25
L
L
U
11/10
-21
L
L
U
11/20
-15
L
L
U
11/27
-14
L
L
U
12/11
-13
L
L
U
12/18
-20
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
W
U
PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-15
L
L
U
10/23
-11
L
L
U
11/06
-7
L
L
U
11/13
-5
L
L
O
11/20
15
W
W
U
11/24
21
W
W
U
12/04
10
W
W
U
12/11
7
W
W
O
12/18
4
W
W
U
12/25
4
W
L
O