CLEBrowns
0-15
24
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
11°F
3 mph
28
PITSteelers
12-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
11°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
14
10
0
24
Steelers
7
14
7
0
28
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
348
Total Plays
63
58
Yards / Play
5.9
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.04
Passing Yards
272
224
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
23/27(85%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.10
Rushing Yards
102
124
Rush Attempts
27
28
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
20
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
47%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.61
-7.90
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-42
-15
Sack EPA
-7.71
-6.60
Penalties
9
3
Penalty Yards
77
15
Penalty EPA
-11.07
-2.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model74.2%
Spread Pick
Steelers-5.0
Expected Value
+20.7%
Cover Probability
62.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+233
Home nfelo
1,610
Away nfelo
1,283
Home Field
+30.8
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
-25.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-124.6
Home QB Adjustment
-129.5
Away QB Adjustment
-4.9
Market Regression
-125.0
Final Difference
183.9
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
D. Kizer
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-129.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
11
Yards / Game
24
5
Passing Yards / Game
15
13
Rushing Yards / Game
18
13
EPA
EPA / Play
31
17
EPA / Pass
32
12
EPA / Rush
4
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
28
Interceptions / Game
32
11
Fumbles / Game
25
22
Turnover EPA / Game
1
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
13
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
24
31
Steelers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
31
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
5
31
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7
EPA
EPA / Play
5
27
EPA / Pass
6
27
EPA / Rush
19
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
24
31
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
18
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
23
4th Down Efficiency
13
18
RZ Efficiency
18
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
0-10
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U