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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ titans week 6, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
0-5
26
TBD
Nissan Stadium
75°F
10 mph
28
TENTitans
2-3
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
75°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
6
7
0
13
26
Titans
7
7
7
7
28

Spread

CLE logo
+7.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
341
407
Total Plays
64
57
Yards / Play
5.3
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.12
Passing Yards
301
270
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
11.3
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.53
Rushing Yards
40
137
Rush Attempts
15
31
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
21%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.68
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-36
-14
Sack EPA
-8.13
-2.62
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
69
96
Penalty EPA
-7.23
-7.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model73.3%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+135
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,371
Home Field
+47.6
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+27.2
Home QB Adjustment
+10.6
Away QB Adjustment
-16.6
Market Regression
+4.0
Final Difference
175.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

C. Kessler headshot

C. Kessler

Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.6
Value
Ptile
09/25
-3.0
27
10/02
-0.4
45
10/09
-3.3
25
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Value
Ptile
11/19
-1.1
43
11/29
-4.2
20
12/06
9.1
95
12/13
-7.1
7
12/20
-8.0
4
09/11
1.6
61
09/18
0.5
53
09/25
-6.2
11
10/02
-3.7
22
10/09
9.5
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Titans Defense
Browns logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
31
16
Yards / Game
30
20
Passing Yards / Game
16
24
Rushing Yards / Game
18
4

EPA

EPA / Play
27
20
EPA / Pass
27
23
EPA / Rush
23
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
25
Interceptions / Game
16
20
Fumbles / Game
27
30
Turnover EPA / Game
16
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
8
4th Down Efficiency
5
18
RZ Efficiency
15
7
Titans Offense vs Browns Defense
Titans logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
14
30
Yards / Game
11
31
Passing Yards / Game
31
9
Rushing Yards / Game
3
30

EPA

EPA / Play
13
32
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
11
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
12
22
Fumbles / Game
16
32
Turnover EPA / Game
17
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
30
4th Down Efficiency
30
29
RZ Efficiency
1
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-34
L
L
U
12/13
14
W
W
U
12/20
-17
L
L
U
12/27
-4
L
W
U
01/03
-16
L
L
U
09/11
-19
L
L
U
09/18
-5
L
L
O
09/25
-6
L
W
O
10/02
-11
L
L
O
10/09
-20
L
L
U
TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
3
W
P
O
12/13
-22
L
L
U
12/20
-17
L
L
O
12/27
-28
L
L
O
01/03
-6
L
L
O
09/11
-9
L
L
O
09/18
1
W
W
U
09/25
-7
L
L
U
10/02
-7
L
L
O
10/09
13
W
W
O