CLEBrowns
0-5
26
TBD
Nissan Stadium
75°F
10 mph
28
TENTitans
2-3
TBD
Nissan Stadium
75°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
6
7
0
13
26
Titans
7
7
7
7
28
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
407
Total Plays
64
57
Yards / Play
5.3
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.12
Passing Yards
301
270
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
11.3
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.53
Rushing Yards
40
137
Rush Attempts
15
31
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
21%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.68
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-36
-14
Sack EPA
-8.13
-2.62
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
69
96
Penalty EPA
-7.23
-7.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,430
Away nfelo
1,368
Home Field
+47.6
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+27.2
Home QB Adjustment
+10.6
Away QB Adjustment
-16.6
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
C. Kessler
Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-16.6
Value
Ptile
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
16
Yards / Game
30
20
Passing Yards / Game
16
24
Rushing Yards / Game
18
4
EPA
EPA / Play
27
20
EPA / Pass
27
23
EPA / Rush
23
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
25
Interceptions / Game
16
20
Fumbles / Game
27
30
Turnover EPA / Game
16
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
8
4th Down Efficiency
5
18
RZ Efficiency
15
7
Titans Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
30
Yards / Game
11
31
Passing Yards / Game
31
9
Rushing Yards / Game
3
30
EPA
EPA / Play
13
32
EPA / Pass
13
32
EPA / Rush
11
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
12
22
Fumbles / Game
16
32
Turnover EPA / Game
17
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
30
4th Down Efficiency
30
29
RZ Efficiency
1
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Titans
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U