CLEBrowns
0-2
31
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
027
MINVikings
0-2
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
17
0
7
31
Vikings
7
10
7
3
27
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
409
329
Total Plays
75
79
Yards / Play
5.5
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.09
Passing Yards
306
195
Comp/Att
31/55(56%)
25/42(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.35
Rushing Yards
103
134
Rush Attempts
17
31
Yards / Rush
6.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
18
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
40%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-12.81
-7.08
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-26
-33
Sack EPA
-4.39
-10.42
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
47
35
Penalty EPA
-7.33
-3.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+170
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+61.5
Home QB Adjustment
-4.7
Away QB Adjustment
-66.2
Market Regression
+39.4
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-66.2
Value
Ptile
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Browns Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
32
Yards / Game
18
31
Passing Yards / Game
8
32
Rushing Yards / Game
28
16
EPA
EPA / Play
25
29
EPA / Pass
25
29
EPA / Rush
14
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
11
Interceptions / Game
24
25
Fumbles / Game
9
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
30
4th Down Efficiency
17
25
RZ Efficiency
22
26
Vikings Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
23
Yards / Game
15
9
Passing Yards / Game
21
9
Rushing Yards / Game
9
18
EPA
EPA / Play
15
17
EPA / Pass
27
12
EPA / Rush
1
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
3
Interceptions / Game
20
19
Fumbles / Game
29
24
Turnover EPA / Game
8
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
31
4th Down Efficiency
14
16
RZ Efficiency
17
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Browns
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Vikings
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U