TBBuccaneers
3-1
3
TBD
Candlestick Park
62°F
6 mph
48
SF49ers
3-1
TBD
Candlestick Park
62°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
0
0
0
3
49ers
7
11
10
14
42
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
272
418
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
4.5
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.36
+0.42
Passing Yards
186
--
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.43
+0.72
Rushing Yards
86
213
Rush Attempts
23
36
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
28
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
44%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
7
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.60
-4.33
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-4.02
--
Penalties
9
3
Penalty Yards
96
30
Penalty EPA
-9.63
-4.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-11.0
Home QB Adjustment
+3.0
Away QB Adjustment
+14.0
Market Regression
+30.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.0
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+3.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
2
Yards / Game
21
7
Passing Yards / Game
14
29
Rushing Yards / Game
31
1
EPA
EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
24
5
EPA / Rush
29
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
7
Interceptions / Game
29
2
Fumbles / Game
29
1
Turnover EPA / Game
1
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
11
4th Down Efficiency
18
11
RZ Efficiency
17
4
49ers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
32
Yards / Game
24
30
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
8
32
EPA
EPA / Play
12
32
EPA / Pass
14
30
EPA / Rush
17
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
21
Interceptions / Game
1
20
Fumbles / Game
8
4
Turnover EPA / Game
32
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
20
4th Down Efficiency
3
31
RZ Efficiency
30
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
49ers
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U