TBBuccaneers
6-3
21
TBD
Candlestick Park
54°F
25 mph
0
SF49ers
3-6
TBD
Candlestick Park
54°F
25 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
7
7
7
21
49ers
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
189
Total Plays
66
55
Yards / Play
4.5
3.4
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.48
Passing Yards
137
118
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
3.8
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.78
Rushing Yards
162
71
Rush Attempts
42
18
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
11
Passing 1st downs
9
5
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
50%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.61
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-6
-30
Sack EPA
-3.41
-6.35
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
--
18
Penalty EPA
--
-2.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+119
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,416
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-31.6
Home QB Adjustment
-6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+25.2
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.2
T. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
16
Yards / Game
18
13
Passing Yards / Game
17
26
Rushing Yards / Game
8
6
EPA
EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
8
18
EPA / Rush
9
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
6
Interceptions / Game
2
17
Fumbles / Game
19
22
Turnover EPA / Game
24
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
17
4th Down Efficiency
1
1
RZ Efficiency
17
9
49ers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
7
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
1
Rushing Yards / Game
20
28
EPA
EPA / Play
24
22
EPA / Pass
23
14
EPA / Rush
15
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
23
Interceptions / Game
13
8
Fumbles / Game
3
14
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
30
4th Down Efficiency
12
21
RZ Efficiency
25
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U