TBBuccaneers
4-5
14
TBD
Levi's Stadium
65°F
10 mph
27
SF49ers
6-3
TBD
Levi's Stadium
65°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
7
0
7
14
49ers
7
6
14
0
27
Spread
+14
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
287
420
Total Plays
67
59
Yards / Play
4.3
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.17
Passing Yards
221
305
Comp/Att
29/45(64%)
21/25(84%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
12.2
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.63
Rushing Yards
66
115
Rush Attempts
18
30
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.09
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.94
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-25
-28
Sack EPA
-10.03
-5.71
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
19
66
Penalty EPA
-2.46
-6.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+281
Home nfelo
1,673
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+52.0
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
+26.4
Home QB Adjustment
+19.3
Away QB Adjustment
-7.1
Market Regression
+87.5
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+19.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
4
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
8
17
Rushing Yards / Game
31
5
EPA
EPA / Play
13
18
EPA / Pass
8
8
EPA / Rush
30
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
27
Interceptions / Game
9
2
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
28
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
27
4th Down Efficiency
2
14
RZ Efficiency
27
11
49ers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
5
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
4
4
EPA
EPA / Play
1
15
EPA / Pass
1
22
EPA / Rush
5
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
13
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
24
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
1
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
49ers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U