TBBuccaneers
2-1
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
81°F
2 mph
21
CINBengals
2-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
81°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
1
7
10
18
Bengals
7
3
3
8
21
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
391
360
Total Plays
60
65
Yards / Play
6.5
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.09
Passing Yards
266
--
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
21/36(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.03
-0.25
Rushing Yards
125
151
Rush Attempts
22
29
Yards / Rush
5.7
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.22
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
45%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
33%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-12.00
-10.68
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-18
--
Sack EPA
-3.27
--
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
--
60
Penalty EPA
--
-7.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+167
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,396
Home Field
+35.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.2
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
24
Yards / Game
18
14
Passing Yards / Game
17
10
Rushing Yards / Game
8
19
EPA
EPA / Play
12
28
EPA / Pass
8
20
EPA / Rush
9
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
25
Interceptions / Game
2
14
Fumbles / Game
19
17
Turnover EPA / Game
24
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
13
4th Down Efficiency
1
3
RZ Efficiency
17
6
Bengals Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
7
Yards / Game
20
15
Passing Yards / Game
24
1
Rushing Yards / Game
27
28
EPA
EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
17
14
EPA / Rush
31
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
23
Interceptions / Game
24
8
Fumbles / Game
26
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
30
4th Down Efficiency
5
21
RZ Efficiency
23
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
1-9
O/U
Bengals
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U