TBBuccaneers
6-3
32
TBD
New Era Field
38°F
20 mph
44
BUFBills
6-3
TBD
New Era Field
38°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
17
6
6
32
Bills
7
14
10
13
44
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
367
414
Total Plays
70
54
Yards / Play
5.2
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.43
Passing Yards
165
--
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
--
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.40
Rushing Yards
202
97
Rush Attempts
39
23
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.33
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
13
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
56%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-4.50
-7.26
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-4.78
--
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
--
45
Penalty EPA
--
-4.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+149
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+56.5
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+3.0
Market Regression
+24.6
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+3.0
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+3.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
14
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
5
3
Rushing Yards / Game
22
31
EPA
EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
18
8
EPA / Rush
9
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
20
Interceptions / Game
3
14
Fumbles / Game
20
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
18
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
25
12
Bills Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
22
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
10
12
Rushing Yards / Game
1
10
EPA
EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
4
15
EPA / Rush
2
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
20
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
10
11
Turnover EPA / Game
22
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
17
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
5
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U