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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ broncos week 3, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
1-1
28
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
7 mph
10
DENBroncos
0-2
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
10
13
3
0
26
Broncos
0
10
0
0
10

Spread

TB logo
-6

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
353
226
Total Plays
65
59
Yards / Play
5.4
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.32
Passing Yards
285
184
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.35
Rushing Yards
68
42
Rush Attempts
25
14
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
17
13
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.63
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-12
-45
Sack EPA
-2.74
-7.50
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
71
--
Penalty EPA
-6.76
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model68.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-110
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,552
Home Field
+8.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-44.3
Home QB Adjustment
-45.2
Away QB Adjustment
-1.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-138.2
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Value
Ptile
11/17
-3.5
28
11/24
-5.4
17
12/01
-1.4
44
12/08
-5.2
19
12/15
-5.3
18
12/21
7.1
90
12/29
-3.3
29
01/04
-4.3
23
09/13
-0.7
41
09/20
-0.4
43
J. Driskel headshot

J. Driskel

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-45.2
Value
Ptile
12/02
-3.4
25
12/09
-1.3
37
12/16
-7.0
10
12/23
-1.5
36
12/30
-8.5
7
11/10
0.9
58
11/17
3.5
75
11/24
-2.0
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Buccaneers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
2
25
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
12
27
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25

EPA

EPA / Play
5
20
EPA / Pass
5
14
EPA / Rush
21
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
20
Interceptions / Game
15
23
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
12
4th Down Efficiency
13
12
RZ Efficiency
11
1
Broncos Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Broncos logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
24
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
21
Rushing Yards / Game
13
1

EPA

EPA / Play
31
6
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
26
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
30
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
23
10
Turnover EPA / Game
1
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
17
4th Down Efficiency
32
13
RZ Efficiency
27
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
3
W
L
O
11/17
-17
L
L
O
11/24
13
W
W
O
12/01
17
W
W
U
12/08
3
W
P
O
12/15
21
W
W
O
12/21
-3
L
P
U
12/29
-6
L
L
O
09/13
-11
L
L
O
09/20
14
W
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
5
W
W
O
11/17
-4
L
W
O
11/24
-17
L
L
U
12/01
3
W
W
O
12/08
14
W
W
O
12/15
-20
L
L
U
12/22
10
W
W
O
12/29
1
W
L
U
09/14
-2
L
W
U
09/20
-5
L
W
O