TBBuccaneers
1-1
28
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
7 mph
10
DENBroncos
0-2
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
55°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
10
13
3
0
26
Broncos
0
10
0
0
10
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
353
226
Total Plays
65
59
Yards / Play
5.4
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.32
Passing Yards
285
184
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.35
Rushing Yards
68
42
Rush Attempts
25
14
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
13
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.63
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-12
-45
Sack EPA
-2.74
-7.50
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
71
--
Penalty EPA
-6.76
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-111
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+8.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-44.3
Home QB Adjustment
-45.2
Away QB Adjustment
-1.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-138.6
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
J. Driskel
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-45.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
25
Yards / Game
9
20
Passing Yards / Game
12
27
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25
EPA
EPA / Play
5
20
EPA / Pass
5
14
EPA / Rush
21
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
20
Interceptions / Game
15
23
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
12
4th Down Efficiency
13
12
RZ Efficiency
11
1
Broncos Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
24
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
21
Rushing Yards / Game
13
1
EPA
EPA / Play
31
6
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
26
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
30
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
23
10
Turnover EPA / Game
1
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
17
4th Down Efficiency
32
13
RZ Efficiency
27
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
8-2
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U