TBBuccaneers
1-6
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
42°F
8 mph
22
CLEBrowns
4-3
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
42°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
10
7
0
17
Browns
3
6
7
6
22
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
330
Total Plays
61
66
Yards / Play
6.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.16
Passing Yards
252
274
Comp/Att
17/33(52%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.16
Rushing Yards
113
56
Rush Attempts
26
27
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.69
-11.31
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-8
-26
Sack EPA
-2.33
-6.31
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
33
44
Penalty EPA
-3.14
-4.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+174
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,417
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+49.6
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
-47.7
Market Regression
+29.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Glennon
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-47.7
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
9
Yards / Game
30
22
Passing Yards / Game
14
17
Rushing Yards / Game
29
32
EPA
EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
27
3
EPA / Rush
25
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
31
2
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
6
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
29
RZ Efficiency
18
6
Browns Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
25
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
22
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18
EPA
EPA / Play
27
24
EPA / Pass
22
28
EPA / Rush
23
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
3
Interceptions / Game
19
16
Fumbles / Game
4
10
Turnover EPA / Game
25
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
27
4th Down Efficiency
27
24
RZ Efficiency
23
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Browns
4-6
SU
4-4-2
ATS
5-5
O/U