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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ browns week 9, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
1-6
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
42°F
8 mph
22
CLEBrowns
4-3
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
42°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
10
7
0
17
Browns
3
6
7
6
22

Spread

TB logo
+7

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
365
330
Total Plays
61
66
Yards / Play
6.0
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.16
Passing Yards
252
274
Comp/Att
17/33(52%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.16
Rushing Yards
113
56
Rush Attempts
26
27
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
33%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.69
-11.31
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-8
-26
Sack EPA
-2.33
-6.31
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
33
44
Penalty EPA
-3.14
-4.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+175
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,418
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+49.6
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
-47.7
Market Regression
+29.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

M. Glennon headshot

M. Glennon

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-47.7
Value
Ptile
11/24
-2.6
35
12/01
-6.9
11
12/08
-7.1
11
12/15
-4.3
23
12/22
-9.2
5
12/29
-1.8
40
09/28
0.2
50
10/05
0.1
50
10/12
-2.9
30
10/26
-5.7
16
B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Value
Ptile
09/22
-3.7
26
09/29
3.1
71
10/03
-3.9
25
09/07
-1.8
37
09/14
-0.3
48
09/21
5.1
82
10/05
2.8
70
10/12
-0.7
45
10/19
-10.3
2
10/26
1.3
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Browns Defense
Buccaneers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
29
9
Yards / Game
30
22
Passing Yards / Game
14
17
Rushing Yards / Game
29
32

EPA

EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
27
3
EPA / Rush
25
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
20
Interceptions / Game
31
2
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
6
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
29
RZ Efficiency
18
6
Browns Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Browns logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
27
25
Yards / Game
23
24
Passing Yards / Game
22
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18

EPA

EPA / Play
27
24
EPA / Pass
22
28
EPA / Rush
23
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
3
Interceptions / Game
19
16
Fumbles / Game
4
10
Turnover EPA / Game
25
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
27
4th Down Efficiency
27
24
RZ Efficiency
23
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-19
L
L
O
12/22
-10
L
L
U
12/29
-25
L
L
O
09/07
-6
L
L
U
09/14
-2
L
L
U
09/18
-42
L
L
O
09/28
3
W
W
O
10/05
-6
L
W
O
10/12
-31
L
L
O
10/26
-6
L
L
U
CLE logo

Browns

4-6
SU
4-4-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-7
L
L
O
12/22
-11
L
L
U
12/29
-13
L
L
U
09/07
-3
L
W
O
09/14
2
W
W
O
09/21
-2
L
P
O
10/05
1
W
P
O
10/12
21
W
W
U
10/19
-18
L
L
U
10/26
10
W
W
U