TBBuccaneers
5-5
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
56°F
14 mph
23
CLEBrowns
3-7
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
56°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Buccaneers
7
3
7
0
0
17
Browns
10
0
0
7
6
23
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
367
Total Plays
66
75
Yards / Play
4.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.00
Passing Yards
229
178
Comp/Att
29/43(67%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.16
Rushing Yards
96
189
Rush Attempts
20
34
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
27%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-0.14
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-17
-32
Sack EPA
-3.11
-6.31
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
70
42
Penalty EPA
-8.66
-5.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-63
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+8.9
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-31.3
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-24.5
Home QB Adjustment
-26.1
Away QB Adjustment
-1.6
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-26.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
19
Yards / Game
14
12
Passing Yards / Game
11
16
Rushing Yards / Game
32
25
EPA
EPA / Play
23
23
EPA / Pass
11
11
EPA / Rush
32
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
12
Interceptions / Game
8
22
Fumbles / Game
24
14
Turnover EPA / Game
16
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
17
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
24
15
Browns Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
15
Yards / Game
15
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
21
Rushing Yards / Game
5
15
EPA
EPA / Play
15
18
EPA / Pass
20
19
EPA / Rush
4
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
10
27
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
28
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
8
4th Down Efficiency
8
25
RZ Efficiency
20
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Browns
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-2-1
O/U