TBBuccaneers
4-2
38
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
035
ARICardinals
3-3
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
1
11
7
7
26
Cardinals
7
7
8
7
29
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
407
396
Total Plays
57
64
Yards / Play
7.1
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.11
Passing Yards
253
296
Comp/Att
18/25(72%)
24/40(60%)
Yards / Pass
10.1
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.26
-0.43
Rushing Yards
154
100
Rush Attempts
30
23
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.01
-19.65
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-25
-9
Sack EPA
-3.21
-0.20
Penalties
9
3
Penalty Yards
80
12
Penalty EPA
-2.22
-1.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+54
Home nfelo
1,397
Away nfelo
1,361
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-67.6
Home QB Adjustment
-53.4
Away QB Adjustment
+14.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
M. Hall
Proj. Value
-5.7
Team Elo Adj
-53.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
30
Yards / Game
18
28
Passing Yards / Game
17
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
30
EPA
EPA / Play
12
14
EPA / Pass
8
19
EPA / Rush
9
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
2
Interceptions / Game
2
11
Fumbles / Game
19
2
Turnover EPA / Game
24
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
11
4th Down Efficiency
1
21
RZ Efficiency
17
1
Cardinals Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
7
Yards / Game
31
15
Passing Yards / Game
22
1
Rushing Yards / Game
32
28
EPA
EPA / Play
31
22
EPA / Pass
31
14
EPA / Rush
25
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
23
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
22
14
Turnover EPA / Game
5
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
30
4th Down Efficiency
24
21
RZ Efficiency
29
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U