TBBuccaneers
6-8
19
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
016
ARICardinals
4-10
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Buccaneers
3
3
0
10
3
19
Cardinals
3
3
0
10
0
16
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
325
Total Plays
78
74
Yards / Play
5.1
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.25
Passing Yards
--
204
Comp/Att
32/48(67%)
25/46(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.26
Rushing Yards
115
121
Rush Attempts
30
27
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
35%
26%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
19
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-8.78
-11.85
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-6.53
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
--
74
Penalty EPA
--
-5.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-176
Home nfelo
1,399
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+56.0
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.8
Net QB Adjustment
-143.4
Home QB Adjustment
-146.4
Away QB Adjustment
-3.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
T. McSorley
Proj. Value
-5.1
Team Elo Adj
-146.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
14
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
4
Rushing Yards / Game
32
14
EPA
EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
11
22
EPA / Rush
32
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
10
Interceptions / Game
8
22
Fumbles / Game
24
10
Turnover EPA / Game
16
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
27
4th Down Efficiency
12
15
RZ Efficiency
24
28
Cardinals Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
15
Yards / Game
22
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
21
Rushing Yards / Game
22
15
EPA
EPA / Play
30
18
EPA / Pass
28
19
EPA / Rush
15
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
32
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
9
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
8
4th Down Efficiency
24
25
RZ Efficiency
11
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
1-8-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cardinals
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U