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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ cardinals week 16, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
6-8
19
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
16
ARICardinals
4-10
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Buccaneers
3
3
0
10
3
19
Cardinals
3
3
0
10
0
16

Spread

ARI logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
396
325
Total Plays
78
74
Yards / Play
5.1
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.25
Passing Yards
--
204
Comp/Att
32/48(67%)
25/46(54%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.26
Rushing Yards
115
121
Rush Attempts
30
27
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
35%
26%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
19
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-8.78
-11.85
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-6.53
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
--
74
Penalty EPA
--
-5.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-175
Home nfelo
1,397
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+56.0
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.8
Net QB Adjustment
-143.4
Home QB Adjustment
-146.4
Away QB Adjustment
-3.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
Value
Ptile
10/09
4.3
83
10/16
0.0
53
10/23
1.3
61
10/27
-0.4
50
11/06
3.2
76
11/13
2.8
74
11/27
1.8
67
12/05
3.4
78
12/11
-0.8
47
12/18
3.8
80
R. McSorley headshot

R. McSorley

Proj. Value
-5.1
Team Elo Adj
-146.4
Value
Ptile
12/29
-4.7
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Buccaneers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
14
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
4
Rushing Yards / Game
32
14

EPA

EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
11
22
EPA / Rush
32
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
10
Interceptions / Game
8
22
Fumbles / Game
24
10
Turnover EPA / Game
16
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
27
4th Down Efficiency
12
15
RZ Efficiency
24
28
Cardinals Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Cardinals logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
15
Yards / Game
22
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
21
Rushing Yards / Game
22
15

EPA

EPA / Play
30
18
EPA / Pass
28
19
EPA / Rush
15
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
32
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
9
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
8
4th Down Efficiency
24
25
RZ Efficiency
11
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
1-8-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
6
W
L
U
10/16
-2
L
L
U
10/23
-18
L
L
U
10/27
-5
L
L
O
11/06
3
W
P
U
11/13
5
W
W
U
11/27
-6
L
L
U
12/05
1
W
L
U
12/11
-28
L
L
O
12/18
-11
L
L
O
ARI logo

Cardinals

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-3
L
W
U
10/16
-10
L
L
U
10/20
8
W
W
O
10/30
-8
L
L
O
11/06
-10
L
L
O
11/13
10
W
W
O
11/21
-28
L
L
O
11/27
-1
L
W
O
12/12
-14
L
L
U
12/18
-9
L
L
O