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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ chargers week 13, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
6-5
28
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
72°F
7 mph
21
LACChargers
5-6
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
72°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
0
4
11
22
Chargers
7
7
7
0
21

Spread

TB logo
+3.5

Total

PUSH
49
P

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
351
330
Total Plays
62
53
Yards / Play
5.7
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.11
Passing Yards
270
211
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.34
-0.14
Rushing Yards
81
119
Rush Attempts
30
25
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.48
-11.24
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-12
-14
Sack EPA
-1.67
-4.06
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
35
45
Penalty EPA
-5.70
-7.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model65.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+78.7
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
-16.2
Home QB Adjustment
-4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+12.2
Market Regression
-4.3
Final Difference
107.7
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Value
Ptile
09/18
-10.7
2
09/25
5.9
86
10/02
-8.3
4
10/10
-0.7
43
10/23
2.5
68
10/30
-1.9
35
11/03
2.9
71
11/13
0.0
49
11/20
4.5
81
11/27
3.7
76
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
Value
Ptile
09/18
3.6
75
09/25
1.7
62
10/02
-0.3
46
10/09
4.3
81
10/13
-0.4
45
10/23
-1.7
36
10/30
-8.5
4
11/06
4.0
78
11/13
-5.3
14
11/27
3.9
77

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
18
15
Passing Yards / Game
13
23
Rushing Yards / Game
25
12

EPA

EPA / Play
18
13
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
28
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
27
1
Fumbles / Game
25
12
Turnover EPA / Game
12
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
17
4th Down Efficiency
22
25
RZ Efficiency
21
14
Chargers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Chargers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
8
15
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
26
22

EPA

EPA / Play
17
12
EPA / Pass
15
10
EPA / Rush
27
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
16
Interceptions / Game
31
4
Fumbles / Game
31
12
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
1
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
23
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-33
L
L
U
09/25
-5
L
L
O
10/02
-20
L
L
U
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/23
17
W
W
O
10/30
-6
L
L
O
11/03
-15
L
L
O
11/13
26
W
W
O
11/20
2
W
W
U
11/27
9
W
W
U
LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
24
W
W
O
09/25
-4
L
L
U
10/02
-1
L
L
O
10/09
-3
L
W
O
10/13
8
W
W
U
10/23
3
W
W
O
10/30
-8
L
L
O
11/06
8
W
W
O
11/13
-7
L
L
O
11/27
8
W
W
U