TBBuccaneers
6-5
28
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
72°F
7 mph
21
LACChargers
5-6
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
72°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
0
4
11
22
Chargers
7
7
7
0
21
Spread
+3.5
Total
PUSH
49
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
351
330
Total Plays
62
53
Yards / Play
5.7
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.11
Passing Yards
270
211
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.34
-0.14
Rushing Yards
81
119
Rush Attempts
30
25
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
8
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.48
-11.24
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-12
-14
Sack EPA
-1.67
-4.06
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
35
45
Penalty EPA
-5.70
-7.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model65.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+77.7
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
-16.2
Home QB Adjustment
-4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+12.2
Market Regression
-4.5
Final Difference
107.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
18
15
Passing Yards / Game
13
23
Rushing Yards / Game
25
12
EPA
EPA / Play
18
13
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
28
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
14
Interceptions / Game
27
1
Fumbles / Game
25
12
Turnover EPA / Game
12
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
17
4th Down Efficiency
22
25
RZ Efficiency
21
14
Chargers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
15
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
26
22
EPA
EPA / Play
17
12
EPA / Pass
15
10
EPA / Rush
27
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
16
Interceptions / Game
31
4
Fumbles / Game
31
12
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
1
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
23
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U