TBBuccaneers
4-4
24
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
63°F
6 mph
30
KCChiefs
7-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
63°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Buccaneers
0
7
10
7
0
24
Chiefs
3
7
0
14
6
30
Spread
+9
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
284
384
Total Plays
52
83
Yards / Play
5.5
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.17
Passing Yards
189
260
Comp/Att
23/31(74%)
34/44(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.25
+0.28
Rushing Yards
95
124
Rush Attempts
19
35
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
8
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
45%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
5
12
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-3.38
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-11
-31
Sack EPA
-1.77
-6.29
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
50
--
Penalty EPA
-4.75
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+220
Home nfelo
1,685
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+50.6
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.7
Net QB Adjustment
-42.4
Home QB Adjustment
-13.6
Away QB Adjustment
+28.8
Market Regression
+8.9
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+28.8
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-13.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
6
Yards / Game
3
9
Passing Yards / Game
8
17
Rushing Yards / Game
5
10
EPA
EPA / Play
5
16
EPA / Pass
4
25
EPA / Rush
7
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
15
Interceptions / Game
24
17
Fumbles / Game
19
26
Turnover EPA / Game
14
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
24
4th Down Efficiency
8
9
RZ Efficiency
4
11
Chiefs Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
17
Yards / Game
19
19
Passing Yards / Game
19
25
Rushing Yards / Game
26
3
EPA
EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
10
22
EPA / Rush
12
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
18
Interceptions / Game
14
29
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
15
4th Down Efficiency
6
24
RZ Efficiency
21
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
3-5-2
O/U