TBBuccaneers
4-5
19
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
46°F
9 mph
17
KCChiefs
7-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
46°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
9
3
7
19
Chiefs
3
7
0
7
17
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
442
343
Total Plays
74
52
Yards / Play
6.0
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.08
Passing Yards
326
--
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
24/31(77%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.43
+0.20
Rushing Yards
116
82
Rush Attempts
34
21
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
19
Passing 1st downs
19
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
69%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
11
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
8
Red Zone %
20%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.47
-7.56
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-5.47
--
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
42
30
Penalty EPA
-5.42
-2.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model73.9%
Spread Pick
Chiefs-7.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+217
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
+47.0
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.2
Home QB Adjustment
-4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.5
Market Regression
-4.8
Final Difference
180.5
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
18
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
17
Rushing Yards / Game
25
27
EPA
EPA / Play
18
9
EPA / Pass
9
7
EPA / Rush
28
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
23
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
25
1
Turnover EPA / Game
12
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
28
4th Down Efficiency
22
15
RZ Efficiency
21
4
Chiefs Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
15
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
21
20
Rushing Yards / Game
19
22
EPA
EPA / Play
12
12
EPA / Pass
16
10
EPA / Rush
12
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
16
Interceptions / Game
8
4
Fumbles / Game
23
12
Turnover EPA / Game
22
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
1
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
28
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U