TBBuccaneers
5-5
12
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
025
INDColts
5-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
9
0
0
12
Colts
3
3
13
6
25
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
336
Total Plays
62
71
Yards / Play
5.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.10
Passing Yards
212
309
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.24
Rushing Yards
132
27
Rush Attempts
21
26
Yards / Rush
6.3
1.0
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
14
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
46%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.48
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-33
-6
Sack EPA
-5.65
-2.93
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
95
45
Penalty EPA
-16.30
-3.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model63.0%
Spread Pick
Colts-3.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+136
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,391
Home Field
+82.7
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-63.9
Home QB Adjustment
-45.5
Away QB Adjustment
+18.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
92.3
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-45.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
4
27
Passing Yards / Game
24
23
Rushing Yards / Game
4
25
EPA
EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
13
18
EPA / Rush
13
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
15
Interceptions / Game
20
6
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
9
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
19
4th Down Efficiency
11
30
RZ Efficiency
23
26
Colts Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
26
Yards / Game
28
11
Passing Yards / Game
20
25
Rushing Yards / Game
29
9
EPA
EPA / Play
27
25
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
32
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
28
Interceptions / Game
28
20
Fumbles / Game
15
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
30
4th Down Efficiency
11
27
RZ Efficiency
20
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U