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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ colts week 12, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
5-5
12
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
25
INDColts
5-5
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
9
0
0
12
Colts
3
3
13
6
25

Spread

IND logo
-3

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
344
336
Total Plays
62
71
Yards / Play
5.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.10
Passing Yards
212
309
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
26/42(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.24
Rushing Yards
132
27
Rush Attempts
21
26
Yards / Rush
6.3
1.0
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
14
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
46%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.48
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-33
-6
Sack EPA
-5.65
-2.93
Penalties
12
6
Penalty Yards
95
45
Penalty EPA
-16.30
-3.13

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model64.0%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+139
Home nfelo
1,508
Away nfelo
1,389
Home Field
+83.5
Base HFA
+61.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-63.9
Home QB Adjustment
-45.5
Away QB Adjustment
+18.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
100.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.4
Value
Ptile
09/13
-6.7
8
09/20
0.9
55
09/27
-1.5
40
10/04
-4.1
21
10/11
-1.0
44
10/25
4.9
81
11/01
0.6
54
11/08
1.7
63
11/15
-4.4
17
11/22
7.1
91
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-45.5
Value
Ptile
12/24
-0.1
52
01/01
4.0
77
10/07
-2.7
32
10/11
-1.6
38
10/21
-0.6
46
10/28
2.3
64
11/04
-0.6
46
10/04
-0.5
48
10/08
2.3
67
11/22
-1.5
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Colts Defense
Buccaneers logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
4
27
Passing Yards / Game
24
23
Rushing Yards / Game
4
25

EPA

EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
13
18
EPA / Rush
13
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
15
Interceptions / Game
20
6
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
9
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
19
4th Down Efficiency
11
30
RZ Efficiency
23
26
Colts Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Colts logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
26
Yards / Game
28
11
Passing Yards / Game
20
25
Rushing Yards / Game
29
9

EPA

EPA / Play
27
25
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
32
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
28
Interceptions / Game
28
20
Fumbles / Game
15
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
30
4th Down Efficiency
11
27
RZ Efficiency
20
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-28
L
L
O
09/20
7
W
W
U
09/27
-10
L
L
U
10/04
-14
L
L
O
10/11
7
W
W
O
10/25
-1
L
W
O
11/01
3
W
W
U
11/08
-14
L
L
O
11/15
4
W
W
U
11/22
28
W
W
O
IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-13
L
L
U
09/21
-13
L
L
U
09/27
2
W
L
O
10/04
3
W
L
U
10/08
7
W
W
O
10/18
-7
L
W
O
10/25
-6
L
L
U
11/02
-3
L
W
O
11/08
3
W
W
O
11/22
3
W
W
U