TBBuccaneers
4-6
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
027
INDColts
5-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
7
0
10
20
Colts
10
7
3
7
27
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
298
394
Total Plays
56
70
Yards / Play
5.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.01
Passing Yards
173
239
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
24/41(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.30
-0.00
Rushing Yards
125
155
Rush Attempts
19
27
Yards / Rush
6.6
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.25
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
26
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.90
-4.28
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-26
-12
Sack EPA
-11.18
-2.66
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
24
40
Penalty EPA
-3.62
-3.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+72.8
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.5
Home QB Adjustment
+9.2
Away QB Adjustment
-9.3
Market Regression
+16.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.3
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
28
Yards / Game
20
24
Passing Yards / Game
8
25
Rushing Yards / Game
31
24
EPA
EPA / Play
13
19
EPA / Pass
8
15
EPA / Rush
30
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
9
14
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
27
16
Colts Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
5
Yards / Game
14
20
Passing Yards / Game
14
31
Rushing Yards / Game
10
4
EPA
EPA / Play
17
15
EPA / Pass
16
22
EPA / Rush
21
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
13
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
16
4
Turnover EPA / Game
19
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
22
4th Down Efficiency
16
7
RZ Efficiency
23
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U