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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ colts week 12, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
4-6
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
27
INDColts
5-5
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
7
0
10
20
Colts
10
7
3
7
27

Spread

IND logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
298
394
Total Plays
56
70
Yards / Play
5.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.01
Passing Yards
173
239
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
24/41(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.30
-0.00
Rushing Yards
125
155
Rush Attempts
19
27
Yards / Rush
6.6
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.25
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
17
26
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.90
-4.28
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-26
-12
Sack EPA
-11.18
-2.66
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
24
40
Penalty EPA
-3.62
-3.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+73.5
Base HFA
+44.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+12.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.0
Away QB Adjustment
-9.2
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
-9.2
Value
Ptile
09/10
-0.5
46
09/17
6.2
87
09/25
-4.7
21
10/01
7.0
91
10/15
-5.4
17
10/22
-0.5
46
10/26
2.1
64
11/05
2.6
68
11/12
-0.2
48
11/19
-2.5
32
G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+10.0
Value
Ptile
12/05
1.6
65
01/08
-2.7
33
12/24
6.0
89
01/01
-5.5
14
09/24
-3.5
26
10/15
-5.5
16
10/22
6.9
90
10/29
-1.4
40
11/05
-2.2
34
11/12
-2.3
33

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Colts Defense
Buccaneers logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
18
28
Yards / Game
20
24
Passing Yards / Game
8
25
Rushing Yards / Game
31
24

EPA

EPA / Play
13
19
EPA / Pass
8
15
EPA / Rush
30
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
9
14
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
27
16
Colts Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Colts logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
5
Yards / Game
14
20
Passing Yards / Game
14
31
Rushing Yards / Game
10
4

EPA

EPA / Play
17
15
EPA / Pass
16
22
EPA / Rush
21
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
13
Interceptions / Game
6
18
Fumbles / Game
16
4
Turnover EPA / Game
19
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
22
4th Down Efficiency
16
7
RZ Efficiency
23
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
3
W
W
U
09/17
10
W
W
O
09/25
-14
L
L
U
10/01
17
W
W
U
10/15
-14
L
L
U
10/22
-3
L
L
U
10/26
-6
L
W
U
11/05
-2
L
W
O
11/12
14
W
W
U
11/19
-13
L
W
U
IND logo

Colts

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
-10
L
L
O
09/17
11
W
W
O
09/24
3
W
W
U
10/01
-6
L
L
O
10/08
7
W
W
U
10/15
-17
L
L
O
10/22
-1
L
W
O
10/29
-11
L
L
O
11/05
14
W
W
U
11/12
4
W
W
U