TBBuccaneers
0-3
13
TBD
FedExField
69°F
10 mph
16
WASCommanders
1-2
TBD
FedExField
69°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
3
0
3
13
Commanders
0
0
16
0
16
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
229
277
Total Plays
55
60
Yards / Play
4.2
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.36
-0.29
Passing Yards
100
152
Comp/Att
13/22(59%)
12/22(55%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.48
Rushing Yards
129
125
Rush Attempts
30
35
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
14
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
15%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.33
-15.56
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-6
-18
Sack EPA
-3.60
-7.37
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+191
Home nfelo
1,457
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+59.5
Home QB Adjustment
+11.3
Away QB Adjustment
-48.2
Market Regression
+8.9
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
J. Johnson
Proj. Value
-4.7
Team Elo Adj
-48.2
No recent game data available
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
17
Yards / Game
28
11
Passing Yards / Game
25
27
Rushing Yards / Game
22
15
EPA
EPA / Play
31
20
EPA / Pass
28
25
EPA / Rush
24
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
5
Interceptions / Game
31
26
Fumbles / Game
2
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
21
4th Down Efficiency
23
1
RZ Efficiency
14
1
Commanders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
27
Yards / Game
22
26
Passing Yards / Game
14
11
Rushing Yards / Game
28
32
EPA
EPA / Play
21
19
EPA / Pass
18
22
EPA / Rush
23
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
20
Interceptions / Game
16
9
Fumbles / Game
4
23
Turnover EPA / Game
24
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
23
4th Down Efficiency
30
26
RZ Efficiency
8
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
2-1-7
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
1-7-2
ATS
1-2-7
O/U