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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ commanders week 4, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
0-3
13
TBD
FedExField
69°F
10 mph
16
WASCommanders
1-2
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
69°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
3
0
3
13
Commanders
0
0
16
0
16

Spread

TB logo
+9

Total

UNDER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
229
277
Total Plays
55
60
Yards / Play
4.2
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.36
-0.29
Passing Yards
100
152
Comp/Att
13/22(59%)
12/22(55%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.25
-0.48
Rushing Yards
129
125
Rush Attempts
30
35
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
12
14
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
15%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.33
-15.56
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-6
-18
Sack EPA
-3.60
-7.37
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+191
Home nfelo
1,457
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+59.5
Home QB Adjustment
+11.3
Away QB Adjustment
-48.2
Market Regression
+8.9
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

J. Johnson headshot

J. Johnson

Proj. Value
-4.7
Team Elo Adj
-48.2
No recent game data available
J. Campbell headshot

J. Campbell

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.3
Value
Ptile
11/16
-1.3
42
11/23
1.2
60
11/30
-1.5
40
12/07
-1.9
37
12/14
1.4
62
12/21
-1.7
39
12/28
4.2
78
09/13
1.5
59
09/20
2.7
67
09/27
4.6
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Buccaneers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
30
17
Yards / Game
28
11
Passing Yards / Game
25
27
Rushing Yards / Game
22
15

EPA

EPA / Play
31
20
EPA / Pass
28
25
EPA / Rush
24
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
5
Interceptions / Game
31
26
Fumbles / Game
2
16
Turnover EPA / Game
4
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
21
4th Down Efficiency
23
1
RZ Efficiency
14
1
Commanders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Commanders logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
27
Yards / Game
22
26
Passing Yards / Game
14
11
Rushing Yards / Game
28
32

EPA

EPA / Play
21
19
EPA / Pass
18
22
EPA / Rush
23
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
20
Interceptions / Game
16
9
Fumbles / Game
4
23
Turnover EPA / Game
24
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
23
4th Down Efficiency
30
26
RZ Efficiency
8
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
2-1-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
6
W
W
P
11/23
18
W
W
P
11/30
3
W
L
P
12/08
-15
L
L
P
12/14
-3
L
W
P
12/21
-17
L
L
P
12/28
-7
L
L
P
09/13
-13
L
L
O
09/20
-13
L
L
O
09/27
-24
L
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
1-7-2
ATS
1-2-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/16
-4
L
L
P
11/23
3
W
P
P
11/30
-16
L
L
P
12/07
-14
L
L
P
12/14
-7
L
L
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
-3
L
L
P
09/13
-6
L
P
O
09/20
2
W
L
U
09/27
-5
L
L
U