TBBuccaneers
2-3
30
TBD
FedExField
64°F
5 mph
31
WASCommanders
2-4
TBD
FedExField
64°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
10
8
0
6
24
Commanders
0
7
14
10
31
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
479
355
Total Plays
60
60
Yards / Play
8.0
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.12
Passing Yards
289
305
Comp/Att
21/29(72%)
33/40(83%)
Yards / Pass
10.0
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.59
+0.14
Rushing Yards
190
50
Rush Attempts
30
19
Yards / Rush
6.3
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
27
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
7
3rd Down %
58%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
25%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-0.31
-9.02
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-12
Sack EPA
-1.45
-9.02
Penalties
16
4
Penalty Yards
142
--
Penalty EPA
-17.42
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+56
Home nfelo
1,412
Away nfelo
1,371
Home Field
+13.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.3
Home QB Adjustment
+1.7
Away QB Adjustment
+0.5
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
4
26
Passing Yards / Game
24
11
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26
EPA
EPA / Play
20
20
EPA / Pass
13
20
EPA / Rush
13
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
26
Interceptions / Game
20
25
Fumbles / Game
21
1
Turnover EPA / Game
9
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
10
4th Down Efficiency
11
22
RZ Efficiency
23
16
Commanders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
26
Yards / Game
15
11
Passing Yards / Game
7
25
Rushing Yards / Game
20
9
EPA
EPA / Play
13
25
EPA / Pass
6
27
EPA / Rush
28
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
9
20
Fumbles / Game
13
5
Turnover EPA / Game
19
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
30
4th Down Efficiency
15
27
RZ Efficiency
11
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-6-1
O/U