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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ commanders week 11, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
1-8
27
TBD
FedExField
45°F
6 mph
7
WASCommanders
3-6
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
45°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
4
3
7
7
21
Commanders
0
7
0
0
7

Spread

TB logo
+7

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
329
322
Total Plays
46
69
Yards / Play
7.2
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.25
Passing Yards
281
167
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
12.2
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.80
-0.62
Rushing Yards
48
155
Rush Attempts
21
31
Yards / Rush
2.3
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
30%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-10.11
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-7
-40
Sack EPA
-2.25
-10.21
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
101
67
Penalty EPA
-12.33
-8.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+135
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,399
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.5
Home QB Adjustment
-13.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Value
Ptile
01/01
-8.8
3
11/04
3.6
75
11/17
-0.2
49
11/24
8.2
92
12/01
1.9
63
12/09
12.6
99
09/07
-2.2
34
09/14
2.1
66
09/18
-9.4
4
11/09
-0.8
44
R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-13.0
Value
Ptile
10/27
-9.4
4
11/03
1.8
63
11/07
4.1
78
11/17
-2.2
37
11/25
-8.6
5
12/01
3.8
76
12/08
-7.5
10
09/07
1.0
57
09/14
-4.6
22
11/02
-3.5
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Buccaneers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
29
29
Yards / Game
30
19
Passing Yards / Game
14
16
Rushing Yards / Game
29
12

EPA

EPA / Play
29
31
EPA / Pass
27
32
EPA / Rush
25
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
31
28
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
6
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
24
4th Down Efficiency
29
24
RZ Efficiency
18
15
Commanders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Commanders logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
9
24
Rushing Yards / Game
18
18

EPA

EPA / Play
23
24
EPA / Pass
25
28
EPA / Rush
18
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
3
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
32
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
27
4th Down Efficiency
32
24
RZ Efficiency
27
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-25
L
L
O
09/07
-6
L
L
U
09/14
-2
L
L
U
09/18
-42
L
L
O
09/28
3
W
W
O
10/05
-6
L
W
O
10/12
-31
L
L
O
10/26
-6
L
L
U
11/02
-5
L
W
U
11/09
-10
L
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-14
L
L
U
09/07
-11
L
L
U
09/14
31
W
W
O
09/21
-3
L
W
O
09/25
-31
L
L
O
10/06
-10
L
L
U
10/12
-10
L
L
O
10/19
2
W
L
U
10/27
3
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
O