TBBuccaneers
1-8
27
TBD
FedExField
45°F
6 mph
7
WASCommanders
3-6
TBD
FedExField
45°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
4
3
7
7
21
Commanders
0
7
0
0
7
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
329
322
Total Plays
46
69
Yards / Play
7.2
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.25
Passing Yards
281
167
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
12.2
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.80
-0.62
Rushing Yards
48
155
Rush Attempts
21
31
Yards / Rush
2.3
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
20
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
30%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-10.11
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-7
-40
Sack EPA
-2.25
-10.21
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
101
67
Penalty EPA
-12.33
-8.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,405
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.5
Home QB Adjustment
-13.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-13.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
29
Yards / Game
30
19
Passing Yards / Game
14
16
Rushing Yards / Game
29
12
EPA
EPA / Play
29
31
EPA / Pass
27
32
EPA / Rush
25
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
31
28
Fumbles / Game
22
16
Turnover EPA / Game
6
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
24
4th Down Efficiency
29
24
RZ Efficiency
18
15
Commanders Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
9
24
Rushing Yards / Game
18
18
EPA
EPA / Play
23
24
EPA / Pass
25
28
EPA / Rush
18
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
3
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
32
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
27
4th Down Efficiency
32
24
RZ Efficiency
27
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U