TBBuccaneers
-
19
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
03
DALCowboys
-
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
6
6
7
0
19
Cowboys
3
0
0
0
3
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
347
244
Total Plays
62
64
Yards / Play
5.6
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.40
Passing Yards
195
173
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
21/42(50%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
4.1
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.48
Rushing Yards
152
71
Rush Attempts
33
18
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.05
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
12
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
36%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.42
-4.48
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-17
-25
Sack EPA
-3.52
-7.53
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
25
73
Penalty EPA
-3.34
-8.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model50.7%
Spread Pick
Cowboys+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+56.2
Base HFA
+36.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.8
Time Adj
+6.6
Net QB Adjustment
-7.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.5
Away QB Adjustment
+9.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-4.7
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
6
Yards / Game
14
13
Passing Yards / Game
11
15
Rushing Yards / Game
32
22
EPA
EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
11
4
EPA / Rush
32
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
29
Interceptions / Game
8
10
Fumbles / Game
24
1
Turnover EPA / Game
16
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
17
RZ Efficiency
24
5
Cowboys Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
15
Yards / Game
10
10
Passing Yards / Game
23
21
Rushing Yards / Game
9
15
EPA
EPA / Play
9
18
EPA / Pass
9
19
EPA / Rush
12
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
32
Interceptions / Game
30
27
Fumbles / Game
3
7
Turnover EPA / Game
20
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
5
25
RZ Efficiency
1
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cowboys
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U