TBBuccaneers
8-6
24
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
026
DALCowboys
6-8
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
14
3
7
24
Cowboys
10
13
3
0
26
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
410
317
Total Plays
70
56
Yards / Play
5.9
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.08
Passing Yards
276
286
Comp/Att
31/43(72%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.26
Rushing Yards
134
31
Rush Attempts
23
20
Yards / Rush
5.8
1.6
EPA / Rush
+0.31
-0.54
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
15
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.47
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-27
-6
Sack EPA
-7.52
-0.94
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
47
--
Penalty EPA
-4.57
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-74
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+60.5
Base HFA
+39.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
+7.1
Net QB Adjustment
-89.6
Home QB Adjustment
-63.6
Away QB Adjustment
+26.0
Market Regression
-10.8
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
C. Rush
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-63.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
31
Yards / Game
3
28
Passing Yards / Game
8
19
Rushing Yards / Game
5
29
EPA
EPA / Play
5
27
EPA / Pass
4
15
EPA / Rush
7
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
19
Interceptions / Game
24
13
Fumbles / Game
19
11
Turnover EPA / Game
14
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
27
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Cowboys Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
17
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3
EPA
EPA / Play
25
18
EPA / Pass
29
22
EPA / Rush
30
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
18
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
32
13
Turnover EPA / Game
5
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
15
4th Down Efficiency
32
24
RZ Efficiency
31
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Cowboys
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U