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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ cowboys week 16, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
8-6
24
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
26
DALCowboys
6-8
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
14
3
7
24
Cowboys
10
13
3
0
26

Spread

DAL logo
+4.5

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
410
317
Total Plays
70
56
Yards / Play
5.9
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.08
Passing Yards
276
286
Comp/Att
31/43(72%)
26/35(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.26
Rushing Yards
134
31
Rush Attempts
23
20
Yards / Rush
5.8
1.6
EPA / Rush
+0.31
-0.54
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
25
15
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.47
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-27
-6
Sack EPA
-7.52
-0.94
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
47
--
Penalty EPA
-4.57
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-75
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+60.1
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-89.5
Home QB Adjustment
-63.5
Away QB Adjustment
+26.0
Market Regression
-10.8
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
Value
Ptile
10/03
5.7
82
10/13
5.2
80
10/21
4.7
78
10/27
5.9
84
11/04
3.3
71
11/10
-2.8
29
11/24
8.5
94
12/01
-6.5
10
12/08
-1.8
36
12/15
9.2
95
C. Rush headshot

C. Rush

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-63.5
Value
Ptile
09/26
1.5
64
10/02
0.2
54
10/09
-6.8
10
10/16
-7.6
7
11/10
-6.7
9
11/18
-2.6
30
11/24
3.3
71
11/28
-1.2
40
12/09
-6.0
12
12/15
2.5
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Buccaneers logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
4
31
Yards / Game
3
28
Passing Yards / Game
8
19
Rushing Yards / Game
5
29

EPA

EPA / Play
5
27
EPA / Pass
4
15
EPA / Rush
7
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
19
Interceptions / Game
24
13
Fumbles / Game
19
11
Turnover EPA / Game
14
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
27
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Cowboys Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Cowboys logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
17
Yards / Game
16
19
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3

EPA

EPA / Play
25
18
EPA / Pass
29
22
EPA / Rush
30
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
18
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
32
13
Turnover EPA / Game
5
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
15
4th Down Efficiency
32
24
RZ Efficiency
31
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
-6
L
L
O
10/13
24
W
W
O
10/21
-10
L
L
O
10/27
-5
L
L
O
11/04
-6
L
W
O
11/10
-3
L
W
U
11/24
23
W
W
U
12/01
3
W
L
O
12/08
15
W
W
U
12/15
23
W
W
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
3
W
W
U
10/13
-38
L
L
O
10/27
-6
L
L
O
11/03
-6
L
L
U
11/10
-28
L
L
U
11/18
-24
L
L
O
11/24
8
W
W
O
11/28
7
W
W
O
12/09
-7
L
L
U
12/15
16
W
W
O