TBBuccaneers
1-7
23
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
9 mph
25
MIADolphins
3-5
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
3
3
14
23
Dolphins
6
13
0
6
25
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
302
374
Total Plays
62
68
Yards / Play
4.9
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.00
Passing Yards
180
--
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.08
Rushing Yards
122
199
Rush Attempts
31
36
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.48
-7.63
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-0.49
--
Penalties
9
3
Penalty Yards
77
30
Penalty EPA
-10.25
-2.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model77.6%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers+10.0
Expected Value
+6.5%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+162
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,359
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-63.8
Home QB Adjustment
-29.4
Away QB Adjustment
+34.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
215.4
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+34.4
Value
Ptile
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-29.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
25
Yards / Game
28
21
Passing Yards / Game
25
29
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17
EPA
EPA / Play
31
28
EPA / Pass
28
21
EPA / Rush
24
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
14
Interceptions / Game
31
16
Fumbles / Game
2
30
Turnover EPA / Game
4
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
5
4th Down Efficiency
23
22
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Dolphins Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
17
26
Passing Yards / Game
23
11
Rushing Yards / Game
5
32
EPA
EPA / Play
12
19
EPA / Pass
19
22
EPA / Rush
3
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
20
Interceptions / Game
24
9
Fumbles / Game
8
23
Turnover EPA / Game
8
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
23
4th Down Efficiency
2
26
RZ Efficiency
5
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-3-2
O/U