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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ dolphins week 17, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
7-8
17
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
3 mph
20
MIADolphins
6-9
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
0
3
7
17
Dolphins
7
10
0
3
20

Spread

MIA logo
+5.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
380
298
Total Plays
63
54
Yards / Play
6.0
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.06
Passing Yards
327
153
Comp/Att
33/44(75%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.22
Rushing Yards
53
145
Rush Attempts
16
30
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
14
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
46%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-12.01
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-19
-19
Sack EPA
-7.52
-1.92
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
--
77
Penalty EPA
--
-5.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model63.2%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-49
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+44.5
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-60.0
Home QB Adjustment
-79.9
Away QB Adjustment
-19.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-94.1
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-19.9
Value
Ptile
10/12
4.5
80
10/20
-6.3
11
10/26
-5.6
14
11/09
4.2
78
11/16
2.6
69
11/23
-9.9
3
11/30
-0.4
46
12/07
-2.7
31
12/11
-4.5
21
12/21
-0.9
44
Q. Ewers headshot

Q. Ewers

Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
-79.9
Value
Ptile
12/21
-3.0
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Buccaneers logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
18
21
Yards / Game
22
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
24

EPA

EPA / Play
22
26
EPA / Pass
24
25
EPA / Rush
9
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
19
Interceptions / Game
11
19
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
27
29
RZ Efficiency
21
18
Dolphins Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Dolphins logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
23
Yards / Game
25
20
Passing Yards / Game
31
24
Rushing Yards / Game
10
7

EPA

EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
17
20
EPA / Rush
11
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
16
Interceptions / Game
29
13
Fumbles / Game
6
16
Turnover EPA / Game
18
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
21
4th Down Efficiency
22
6
RZ Efficiency
15
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
11
W
W
O
10/20
-15
L
L
U
10/26
20
W
W
U
11/09
-5
L
L
O
11/16
-12
L
L
O
11/23
-27
L
L
U
11/30
3
W
L
U
12/07
-4
L
L
O
12/11
-1
L
L
O
12/21
-3
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
-2
L
W
O
10/19
-25
L
L
O
10/26
24
W
W
U
10/30
-22
L
L
U
11/09
17
W
W
U
11/16
3
W
W
U
11/30
4
W
L
U
12/07
24
W
W
O
12/15
-13
L
L
P
12/21
-24
L
L
O