TBBuccaneers
0-4
14
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
7 mph
33
PHIEagles
2-1
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
62°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
7
0
7
14
Eagles
7
14
7
3
31
Spread
-15.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
303
325
Total Plays
75
48
Yards / Play
4.0
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.22
Passing Yards
218
249
Comp/Att
26/50(52%)
17/24(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
10.4
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.45
Rushing Yards
85
76
Rush Attempts
22
21
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
13
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
50%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
9
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.89
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-22
-16
Sack EPA
-3.13
-4.12
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
30
111
Penalty EPA
-2.66
-15.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-15.5
Current
-15.5
Model
-15.5
Win Probability
Market89.1%
Model88.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+300
Home nfelo
1,569
Away nfelo
1,393
Home Field
+80.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+44.4
Home QB Adjustment
-1.7
Away QB Adjustment
-46.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
361.6
Model Spread
-15.5
Quarterbacks
J. Johnson
Proj. Value
-4.7
Team Elo Adj
-46.1
Value
Ptile
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
19
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
25
32
Rushing Yards / Game
22
12
EPA
EPA / Play
31
9
EPA / Pass
28
9
EPA / Rush
24
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
10
Interceptions / Game
31
4
Fumbles / Game
2
14
Turnover EPA / Game
4
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
23
25
RZ Efficiency
14
25
Eagles Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
27
Yards / Game
11
26
Passing Yards / Game
5
11
Rushing Yards / Game
24
32
EPA
EPA / Play
14
19
EPA / Pass
12
22
EPA / Rush
10
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
20
Interceptions / Game
8
9
Fumbles / Game
27
23
Turnover EPA / Game
23
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
23
4th Down Efficiency
28
26
RZ Efficiency
27
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Eagles
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-0-7
O/U