TBBuccaneers
-
23
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
020
ATLFalcons
-
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
10
7
6
23
Falcons
7
3
3
7
20
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
260
358
Total Plays
56
71
Yards / Play
4.6
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.01
Passing Yards
159
289
Comp/Att
17/32(53%)
27/42(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.23
Rushing Yards
101
69
Rush Attempts
23
28
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
50%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-9
Sack EPA
-0.29
-1.94
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
60
55
Penalty EPA
-5.38
-5.91
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+34.5
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.6
Home QB Adjustment
-11.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
+2.8
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
M. Penix
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
19
Yards / Game
17
17
Passing Yards / Game
5
18
Rushing Yards / Game
22
27
EPA
EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
18
16
EPA / Rush
9
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
3
11
Fumbles / Game
20
25
Turnover EPA / Game
28
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
16
4th Down Efficiency
20
21
RZ Efficiency
25
20
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
22
Yards / Game
16
22
Passing Yards / Game
22
12
Rushing Yards / Game
13
10
EPA
EPA / Play
27
13
EPA / Pass
23
15
EPA / Rush
16
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
20
Interceptions / Game
3
3
Fumbles / Game
29
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
17
4th Down Efficiency
28
8
RZ Efficiency
12
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U