TBBuccaneers
3-1
30
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
036
ATLFalcons
2-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Buccaneers
10
14
3
3
0
30
Falcons
7
10
3
10
6
36
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
333
550
Total Plays
51
81
Yards / Play
6.5
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.19
Passing Yards
173
477
Comp/Att
19/24(79%)
42/59(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.39
+0.36
Rushing Yards
160
73
Rush Attempts
26
18
Yards / Rush
6.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
28
Passing 1st downs
12
24
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
55%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.76
-2.47
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-32
Sack EPA
-1.84
-5.46
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
47
74
Penalty EPA
-4.59
-7.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+16
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+41.5
Base HFA
+46.3
Divisional Adj
-20.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.4
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
+4.3
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
23
Yards / Game
3
22
Passing Yards / Game
8
3
Rushing Yards / Game
5
15
EPA
EPA / Play
5
23
EPA / Pass
4
28
EPA / Rush
7
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
25
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
19
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
31
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
4
28
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
17
Yards / Game
6
19
Passing Yards / Game
7
25
Rushing Yards / Game
10
3
EPA
EPA / Play
15
18
EPA / Pass
15
22
EPA / Rush
11
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
18
Interceptions / Game
29
29
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
8
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
15
4th Down Efficiency
5
24
RZ Efficiency
20
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U